By Nicholas Blanford
A renewed flurry of threats and warnings between Israeli officials and the leaders of Lebanon’s militant Shiite organization Hezbollah have sparked a serious bout of war jitters on both sides of the border which are also threatening to draw in other regional players. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman publicly warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad today that getting involved in a Lebanon-Israel conflict would result in the disintegration of his regime.
Though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu then sought to smooth Syria’s feathers, reiterating his country’s desire for restarting peace talks, tensions are running high over a possible conflict with its neighbors. Israeli leaders grumble about Hezbollah’s military build-up since their month-long war in July 2006 and warn of a massive blow against Lebanon in the event of another clash. Hezbollah’s leadership remains defiant, saying they’re ready for another confrontation and confident of victory against the Jewish state.
The saber-rattling from both sides is part of the relentless psychological war between the two bitter foes, and shows that tensions continue to exist despite the fact that the border between them has experienced its longest period of calm in more than four decades. The United Nations peacekeeping force in south Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, says there is no indication that another war is imminent.
“The most important part is the continued political will and commitment of the parties to maintain the cessation of hostilities,” says Milos Strugar, a senior advisor to UNIFIL. “In all our contacts with all sides this will and commitment is continually reinforced and strongly emphasized by everyone.”
Lebanon wants to preserve newfound stability
But the worries in Lebanon are heartfelt, particularly as the country is enjoying its first period of relative political stability in five years. In 2009 Lebanon received a record 1.9 million tourists, whose spending contributed about 20 percent of gross domestic product. Another calm summer could witness yet even greater numbers of tourists visiting this tiny Mediterranean country.
Ghazi Aridi, the transport minister, said recently that the atmosphere in Lebanon is similar to the period prior to Israel’s invasion in 1982 which was widely expected for months beforehand.
“Everyone has to work for enhancing national unity and preparing the ground to face any Israeli aggression,” he said in an interview with Lebanon’s Future Television.
Despite the jitters and the rhetoric from both sides of the border, neither Hezbollah nor Israel appear anxious to embark upon a new round of fighting. Analysts suggest that the spark for a new conflict could come from an incident along the border that flares out of control, such as a rocket attack into Israel. There have been seven isolated firings of short-range rockets into Israel since 2006, all of them suspected of being the work of either Al-Qaeda-affiliated factions or rogue Palestinian groups.
Another trigger factor: Iran
The other potential trigger factor is related to developments in Iran. A move by Israel or the West to attack Iranian nuclear facilities could result in a backlash along the Lebanon-Israel border, or a preemptive strike by Israel against Hezbollah. Some analysts suggest that Iranian leaders may seek to ignite a confrontation with Israel as a means of deflating mounting internal pressure against the regime in Tehran. While Hezbollah is ideologically and financially committed to Iran, the group’s leaders also are sensitive to the interests of their Lebanese Shiite support base, which is still recovering from the 2006 war and would not relish more destruction being visited on their families, homes and livelihoods.
Expectations of another war between Hezbollah and Israel began the moment the last one ended inconclusively in August 2006. During that month-long conflict, Hezbollah’s militants proved tougher than the ill-prepared Israeli army anticipated. Hezbollah proclaimed a “divine victory” but lost its military autonomy over the southern Lebanon border district. Israel was widely seen as having lost the war, but has benefited from a peaceful border since.
Since then Israel has retrained its army, developed and introduced new technology to cope with Hezbollah’s rockets and anti-tank missiles and drawn up a new strategy for dealing with its Lebanese foe.
Israeli officials have warned that in the event of another war they will treat Lebanon as their enemy rather than just Hezbollah, particularly since Hezbollah joined Lebanon’s coalition government in November, a move that has blurred the distinction between the state and the Shiite group.
“For practical reasons we cannot beat Hezbollah. We have to define Lebanon as our enemy,” says Giora Eiland, a former Israeli national security advisor during the premiership of Ariel Sharon. “The Lebanese government must know that it has only two possibilities: One, to let the relative calm continue, and, two, that a war will devastate Lebanon.”
Dubbed the “Dahiyah doctrine” after Hezbollah’s southern Beirut stronghold, which was heavily bombed in 2006, it calls for attacking roads, bridges and power stations as well as Lebanese army bases and population centers that support Hezbollah.
“The strategic objective in the next war is to understand that you cannot solve the problem in one step,” says Shlomo Brom, a former director of the Israeli army’s Strategic Planning Branch. “The only way of solving the problem is occupying Lebanon and kicking Hezbollah out. It is not easy and Israel is not willing to pay that price.”
The doctrine amounts to using collective punishment to discourage Lebanon’s continued tolerance of Hezbollah’s armed status.
Hezbollah’s fresh battle plans
Hezbollah has prepared fresh battle plans of its own amid an unprecedented rearming, recruiting and training drive since 2006. It reportedly has 40,000 rockets now, more than double the figure prior to 2006.
Among Hezbollah’s new rocket systems is the Syrian M-600, with a longer range and more accuracy than past models, according to US and European intelligence sources. Hezbollah militants have hinted at staging cross-border raids to attack military and civilian targets. That would be unprecedented in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
“You will see next time that maybe the UN will ask us to withdraw from northern Israel rather than asking Israel to withdraw from south Lebanon,” says Abu Khalil, a 22-year Hezbollah veteran.
Many Hezbollah fighters say the next conflict with Israel will lead to the destruction of the Jewish state. Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, recently predicted that in the next war his group “will defeat the enemy and change the face of the region.”
Still, analysts say that the stakes are so high and the level of mutual destruction so great that neither Hezbollah nor Israel are looking for another confrontation.
“I don’t think Israel is willing to have a war right now and I don’t think Hezbollah is itching for a fight either,” says Timur Goksel, a former senior UNIFIL official. “Yes, Israel can trash Lebanon, but it will be very expensive for Israel too. Hezbollah will fire all over the place and there will be many more [Israeli] casualties than in 2006.” csmonitor
Hezbollah is a creation of Israhell, it is immoral to blame all Lebanese for the mistakes that the USA and Israhell did sending 360,000 Palestinian refugees to Lebanon in 1973 to give their land to Israhell.
Lebanese and Lebanon are victims of the greed of Israhell and the Fanatics of the Hezbollah.
If Israhell bombs Lebanon as it does out of jealousy every time Lebanon is progressing to stability, this time I would like to see Hezbollah and Israhell destroyed like 2 dogs with rabies.
Once death both dogs, The decease will end.
Just because there are no wars at the moment and no bombs exploding, we call it ’stability’!
Stability means a lot more..It means a government which enforces its laws on all living within its borders citizens and foreigners..A government army which is capable of protecting the nation..A nation which in turn respects the law of the country , have common and same goals and AGREE on how to pursue these goals..NO small political armies and parties who have complete freedom in obtaining, organising and setting their own rules and drawing own maps of interests..There is no stability where a government is incapable of raising the lebanese flag up when some foreigner lowers it down, spits on it and wipe his boot..Stability wont come to Lebanon till the lebanese people come to their senses and become mentally stable!!!
Stability will only prevail with a strong government that pulls and controls the population as one- no mercy for anyone who wants to roam the land free!!
When I say progressing to stability means that We are on Our way to achieve it, and not that We are there yet.
Lebanon had record visitors on 2009, this is when Israel got Jealous. From this visits derives investment and the returning of True Lebanese expatriates whit the only desire to come back and invest in Lebanon, a new War will destroy the only force that is capable of taking Lebanon to Stability, And that is a strong economy.
We don’t have an army capable of protecting the nation for two reasons, One is the amount of Men that died on the 1975–>1990 War, And now that the Army is restructuring no one wants to sell weapons to Lebanon for fear that those weapons could reach Hezbollah, At least that is the pretext France is giving to the Lebanese Government.
I think that there is so much pressure in to Our Government and so much hypocrisy around Our country, If the International community would want to help will not interfere when Lebanon looks for the military means to become a strong Army and defend the country, But that is precisely what Israel do not want and that puts pressure in the Lebanese Army and Government, We are confronting the possibility of a War and We have no weapons, An ideal scenario for Our enemies to invade Lebanon under false pretences, Or to control it like Hezbollah does.
If You want that the Lebanese Government ends with those groups roaming free, (Whom by the way are protected by the UN) the entire international community will judge that control of foreigner antagonists like genocide, and that is precisely what they are waiting, This will make of Lebanon the killing grounds of Israel and ideal scenario to be invaded by Syria and Israel, And here We go again.
The problem here is that The Lebanese Government does not pursue the UN as responsible for the problems that the very same UN created in Lebanon, They placed all those foreigners inside Our Lebanon and tied up Our hands Making of those refuges inside Lebanon antagonists and the true inhabitants of Lebanon Victims.
The UN is a Bordello where their members sell themselves like whores in favour of the interest of Israel, And We only see the Hezbollah as oppressive…? I see Israel as the spoiled child of the M.E. and I hope that Our Government takes Our situation against the UN, ferociously and make them responsible for the suffering and loses of The Lebanese Nation.
While most of the world’s people are awakening to a confident new era of opportunity and advancement, both capable and compelled to unite for the first time in human history, it remains unfortunate and painful to us all that we still have among us, a few misguided individuals, clinging to the ill conceived violence of our tragic past.
In this era of great communications and knowledge, it saddens me to see that it’s all for waste. Animosity and basic human instincts will plunge this world in a new dark age if don’t learn to deal with our own demons.
In a nutshell, Israel sees Hezbollah as an arm of Iran and Hezbollah needs excuses to keep its weapons.