A parade by Hezbollah militants
BY PAUL SALEM
The future of Hezbollah, Lebanon’s powerful Shia political and paramilitary organization, has never looked more uncertain. Indeed, given rising tension with Israel and possible indictments of its operatives by the international tribunal investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Hezbollah appears to be hemmed in on all sides.
The most immediate question concerns the possibility of another Israel-Hezbollah war, fears of which have mounted throughout this year, fueled by reports of new missile transfers to Hezbollah and intermittent threats from Israel. Those who foresee war argue that Israel is unwilling to tolerate a heavily armed Iranian proxy on its border while tensions with Iran over the nuclear issue remain unresolved.
Although war is unlikely in the coming months, if sanctions on Iran don’t bear fruit by early 2011, Israel might feel the need to act. If it launched military strikes on Iran’s nuclear installations, Hezbollah would likely join the fray and Israel would have to engage Hezbollah at the same time. Alternatively, Israel might launch a pre-emptive war against Hezbollah in order to rob Iran of a nearby retaliatory capacity.
Hezbollah is preparing intensively for such scenarios, building defenses, digging tunnels and assembling a powerful missile arsenal. But, although Hezbollah’s preparations are likely to ensure its survival, it would be hard-pressed to justify to the Lebanese public a strategy that led to two ruinous wars in the span of five years.
In the end game of such a war, Syria might be asked by the Arab countries and the international community to take greater responsibility in Lebanon, in order to contain Hezbollah and its military profile.
Moreover, if peace prevents a slide into war, Hezbollah has another problem. Although a real breakthrough in the Arab-Israeli peace process appears unlikely, United States envoy George Mitchell is still talking of Arab-Israeli peace as a distinct possibility in 2011. Sources within the US administration hint that President Barack Obama might announce the outlines of an Arab-Israeli settlement sometime this year.
An accord between Syria and Israel is a key element of all proposed scenarios for Arab-Israeli peace. In exchange for giving back the occupied Golan Heights, Israel and the United States will insist on the disarmament of Hezbollah. Indeed, within the context of the Arab Peace Plan, announced in Beirut in 2002, the Arab states take it upon themselves to ensure the security of “all states in the region” — code words for dealing with the threats from Hezbollah and Hamas — since the region includes Israel.
Although both Hezbollah and Iran still argue, perhaps correctly, that Israel will not give back the Golan Heights or allow the emergence of a Palestinian state, the possibility of peace cannot be ruled out. If it does occur, Syria will push Lebanon into a peace treaty with Israel and lean on Hezbollah heavily to adjust to the new realities.
Given its popularity among Lebanese Shia, Hezbollah could continue as an influential political party, but it would have to abandon its role as a major proxy for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Nevertheless, Hezbollah faces severe political trouble. Although no official announcement has been made, there are reports that Daniel Bellemare, prosecutor for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, might close his investigation and issue indictments in the fall.
In a speech on July 16, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged rumors that the Tribunal might indict members of his party, but charged that the Tribunal was part of an Israeli plot to undermine the Islamic resistance in Lebanon and has no credibility. He argued that the indictments would probably be based on cellphone records, and that Israeli agents had penetrated the Lebanese cell-phone network. Indeed, the Lebanese authorities recently arrested a high-level official at one of the country’s two cellphone companies, alleging that he was an Israeli agent.
In describing the tribunal as part of an Israeli plot, Nasrallah warned the government and other parties in Lebanon against cooperating with it, or accepting its verdicts. He reminded his audience of the street fighting in Beirut in May 2008, and made clear that Hezbollah would not shy away from another fight if necessary.
While Hezbollah has tried to convince other Lebanese that its presence helps maintain the country’s security and stability, regional and international developments suggest that it faces mounting challenges. And, although the future does not look bright for Hezbollah, it is not likely to relinquish its power without a fight.
Paul Salem is Director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, Beirut.
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Rating: Poor
-12
All one needs to read is one paragraph in this entire article and know what Hezbollah is all about:
In describing the tribunal as part of an Israeli plot, Nasrallah warned the government and other parties in Lebanon against cooperating with it, or accepting its verdicts. He reminded his audience of the street fighting in Beirut in May 2008, and made clear that Hezbollah would not shy away from another fight if necessary.
Another THREAT against it’s own people! Do you call this a peaceful, people-loving group? They are thugs and an insult to God!
Rating: Well-loved
+18
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Rating: Poor
-10
R or whoever you are. If you follow the news the jews are well hated in Europe and there are more protesters from Europe against the occupations than Arab there. Also your memory is very short apparently who saved the Muslims in Bosnia? wasn’t the Europeans and the US who stopped their slaughters? If HA cares about Palestinians why don’t they send them food and give them good shelter they’re only few feet away from them in the South. Stop the fake acts them and Syria. It was Syria who killed the palestinians in Lebanon. Just don’t blinded by your hatered of the west while most of you live there and making a living there. No one is saying the west is fair sometimes but don’t lump the christians nations into bad ones. Just because someone is europeans it don’t make them christians.Many are atheists and non-christians believers. At least i have to admit the christians in the west are much more kind and tolerable than the christians in the east. Palestinians are raping themselves everyday and if they get along and united no one can control them. They brought their own misery to themselves. They let groups like fatah al islam who butchered fellow muslims lebanon.Now the camps all full of extremists like them. I wander how long they wait before they attack the lebanese populations and the army too. I just read about a muslim woman who went to palestine with other eurpoeans to protest the israeli occupations. Somehow a palestinian activist seeked shelter in their hotel claiming to be running away from the israelis. This guy attempted to rape this poor muslim woman and she complained to the PLO authority she was told he will only applogize as long as she keeps quiet on the matter. WHo is raping who here damn it? take your opinion and shove it you jerk. As far as Iran they’re raping their own people in prison beside torturing them and killing them. judge them before you judge others. I am not protecting the israelis one damn bit. But when you have these people killing each other, then you have to protect yourself too. However with all sincerity i wish the palestinians a homeland they call it palestine and they live peacefully next to their neighbors.
Rating: Well-loved
+9
I share your emotions and anger with respect to the Palestinian issue BIG TIME but please let’s not get off the topic of Hezbollah. Sorry I am Lebanese and don’t want my country and people be tormented by this ruthless mob. They are forcing themselves on our freedom and rights to live in peace. At the end of the day, we all want one thing: Peace and our God given right for freedom.
Rating: Well-loved
+8
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Rating: Poor
-6
you know R i gotta tell ya – i do enjoy your fairness but many people aren’t ready for that yet. you think exactly the way i do in terms of going to a specific case and analyzing its origin. many live in denial as to HA’s existence and of they would admit to why exist, then they could lobby the government to protect the shiites who will in turn lobby HA to disarm as they won’t be needed anymore.
i do agree with george though in regards to the palestinians cos the biggest traitor is mahmoud abbas. that monkey has alienated Hammas just so he can sleep well at night. he’s no arafat for sure. at least arafat had gutso and balls while abbas probably wears panties behind closed doors.
what palestinian would not stand behind hammas that was democratically elected by the people under the auspices of the US and israeli encouragement? abbas.
what palestinian sleeps well at night knowing that israel and the US lied to the palestinians as they encouraged them to vote and later punished them for their decisions? abbas.
that man is so soft that i have absolutely no respect for him and what he says anymore. he has his head so far up israel that he feels he’s doing the right thing for the palestinians.
i honestly dont think lebanon will ever allow for iranian mentality to enter our mind set. HA might for now need iranian financial backing but i sincerely believe that in the long run with saudi, qatari and syrian (i know many of you will shudder at the word syrian) cooperation, HA will eventually come around.
i totally understand their anger as it took them around 20 years to actually and finally become part of the government system. its taken the lebanese people around 20 years to actually the shiites as part of the democratic process. whose fault is that?
could it be that saudi was pumping so much money into hariri’s (MHRIP) coffers that he was part of a big plot to keep them oppressed? god only knows these answers but to expect an oppressed person and also someone who has taken so long to be accepted in his country to play ball right away is absolutely absurd.
peace in 2011 with palisraeli is a farce. dream on. thats just george mitchell securing himself a job.
i also say it again that a 2 state solution within palisrael is illogical. are you gonna name west bank palestine major and the gaza strip palestine minor?
thats just utterly nonsensical. coexistence is the only answer and the israelis know that and the palestinians know that. so for HA and iran to keep drumming the record for palestine as a nation will soon start to lose momentum and their cause to exist will slowly crumble cos the past is gone, palestine is no more, we live in the present and a new and a stronger palestine will emerge cos demographically and as much as the israelis also wanna keep thinking they will secure their jewish state; all that old school ideology will crumble and coexistence will win with a minority jewish population in power along with a palestinian people living with dignity and rights. the government will most likely consist of all religions to reflect the new country but the president will most likely remain jewish in order to secure the existence of the israelis.
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20 years to actually recognise the shiites………..
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I am cool with what you say Tony. I enjoy reading your posts too.
regards,
r
Rating:
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@And they should have the freedom to love Lebanon and not want any western interference or influence in it.
But backwards and intolerant,freedom-less Iranian and Syrian influence in Lebanon is okay??
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no it is not ok ya Fadi.
We still do what we want in Lebanon our way too. They have not imposed any iranian rules on us. Not wanting wester influence or interference in Lebanon does no mean as you assume, that we will get iranian islamic rule.
Hot debate!
+4
Lebanon has broad cultural background and both eastern and western influence are welcomed. Lebanon should be tolerant due do its demographic composition. Neither hizbolla nor any lebanese should impose the kind of influence that is allowed in lebanon. Hizbolla has been doing this through terror and systematic attack against any culture that does not fit the iranian and syrian standard. The terrorists want two standard: the iranian fanataic and the syrian dictatorial standards
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And you’re still an evil bozo
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-3
Dear R, I am really happy for an evil bozo. Anything in this world is better than hizbolla and iran fanatic and self-defeating ideology, and much better than the syrian assassin ideology.
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+2
M, That’s what I am trying to tell you. You are not better then HA. You are equals. So be happy bozo.
You remind me of an LF relative of mine. Full of hate, subjective, and blind.
Rating:
-1