And if anything is likely to replace “jobs, jobs, jobs” at the top of the list of campaign issues, it’s the arrival of a nuclear-capable Iran.

The report, the result of research by the Critical Threats Project at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, is careful to underscore that its findings assess “technical feasibility” only and do not delve into the question of Iran’s motivations behind its advancing nuclear program.

The report “does not assess Iran’s intentions to weaponize or to pursue break-out scenarios,” says Maseh Zarif, the Critical Threat Project’s Iran team leader. “It is intended solely to inform the policy community and the American public about the nature and progress of the Iranian nuclear program.”

Iran insists that its uranium enrichment program is aimed at producing fuel and materials for civilian power and medical research purposes. But the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Western powers, including the United States, suspect that Iran’s recent acceleration of uranium enrichment to about 20 percent purity suggests Tehran could be planning to “break out” as a nuclear weapons power.

In his report, Mr. Zarif says Iran would need 85 kilograms of about 20-percent low-enriched uranium to deliver the 15 kilograms of 90-percent high-enriched, or weapons-grade, uranium to build a bomb.

Using information gleaned from IAEA reports and other technical sources, Zarif says Iran could have the needed amount of 20-percent low-enriched uranium, which it is producing at two known facilities, Natanz and Fordow, by June. To convert that into the 15 kg of weapons-grade uranium needed for a bomb, would then take about another 10 weeks.

That is, if Iran decided to take such a “break-out” step. So far it is only known to be producing the 20-percent enriched uranium.

The Zarif report differs from the conclusions of other nuclear experts, some of whom have estimated Iran to be at least a year away from amassing enough fuel to provide the basis for an eventual nuclear weapon. Others have put a “break-out’ date even farther off, based on Iran’s known and repeated technical difficulties – not to mention the certain and virulent international reaction that any signs of a shift to producing high-enriched uranium would trigger.

But some researchers estimate that Iran could be even closer to the nuclear threshold than Zarif concludes.

Gregory Jones, in a December report for the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, said that an “all-out effort” by Iran could result in a bomb within two to six months.

Shifting from a technical appraisal to an analysis of “intentions,” Mr. Jones predicted that Iran would avoid that kind of reaction-causing “all-out effort” but would instead “continue on its current course, producing an ever growing stockpile of enriched uranium and carrying out additional research to produce non-nuclear weapons components.”

Jones also concluded that the debate over Iran’s intentions may be moot. “Though it could be many years before Iran becomes an overt nuclear weapon state,” he said, “it is already close enough to obtaining a nuclear weapon to be considered a de facto nuclear country.”

Zarif doesn’t make that kind of judgment in his report. But he does offer one conclusion that could resonate as US policymakers wrestle with the Iran issue over the coming months.

He says that all the measures taken by known and unknown actors against Iran since 2009 – economic sanctions, targeted killings of Iranian nuclear scientists and engineers, and computer viruses that have sent Iran’s uranium-enriching centrifuges spinning out of control – “have not significantly derailed the Iranian enrichment program.”

CSM

Presidential and parliament elections are envisioned for late spring, though a date has not been set.

Elections are at the center of reconciliation between the Islamic militant Hamas and Fatah, the movement of internationally backed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Hamas won parliament elections in 2006 and wrested control of Gaza from Abbas by force a year later. The Gaza office of the Central Elections Commission was closed after the 2007 takeover. It was reopened Tuesday.

In a related development Israeli troops detained a Hamas legislator in the West Bank early Tuesday in the fifth such arrest in as many days, the Islamic militant group said.

Hamas has accused Israel of trying to sabotage possible Palestinian elections, the centerpiece of reconciliation attempts between Hamas and the rival Fatah movement .

Israeli military officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Israel considers Hamas a terrorist organization. The group has carried out scores of deadly attacks against Israelis, but has largely held its fire in recent years.

Hamas said that in the latest incident, lawmaker Abdel Jaber Fuqaha was taken from his home in the West Bank city of Ramallah early Tuesday. Fuqaha is the fifth Hamas lawmaker to be arrested since last week, Hamas said.

Currently, 24 of 45 Hamas legislators from the West Bank are in Israeli detention on charges of membership in an illegal organization.

Hamas lawmakers have been subject to arrest by Israel since the group competed in Palestinian parliament elections in 2006, defeating Fatah. Several lawmakers have been detained repeatedly.

Ismail Ashkar, a leading Hamas lawmaker, accused Israel of trying to sabotage reconciliation efforts.

“Every time we move toward reconciliation and reactivating the Palestinian parliament, we see Israel targeting our lawmakers in the West Bank,” Ashkar said.

Palestinian peace negotiator Saeb Erekat, a leader in Fatah, condemned the recent arrests as a “flagrant act of aggression” that undermines prospects for peace. “With these actions, Israel exposes the farcical nature of its peace rhetoric,” he said.

After Hamas’ 2006 election victory, repeated attempts at power-sharing between the rivals failed. Hamas seized control of Gaza by force in 2007, leaving Abbas with only the West Bank where he launched a crackdown on his rivals.

In recent months, the two sides have been trying to reconcile, but have had trouble moving forward because of continued distrust. Next week, Abbas is to meet with Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal in Cairo to try to break the impasse.

CBS/ AP

“I decided today to reject my mandate as a deputy,” Gryzlov said in remarks posted on the party’s website, adding that it would “not be right to hold the post of chairman of the chamber for more than two consecutive terms”.

As Duma speaker since 2003 and chairman of United Russia’s Supreme Council, Gryzlov is a powerful symbol of a political system dominated by Putin and the party for more than a decade.

Voters expressed their frustration with that dominance by sharply reducing United Russia’s parliamentary majority in the Dec. 4 vote. It will hold 238 seats when the 450-member Duma convenes on Dec. 21, down from the 315 it won in 2007 elections.

Opponents charge United Russia’s official result – 49.3 percent of the vote – was inflated by fraud.

Claims of electoral violations spread via the Internet and tens of thousands of people protested in dozens of cities on Saturday, calling for a new election and chanting for a “Russia without Putin”.

Putin, president from 2000-2008, will seek a new six-year term in the Kremlin in a March 4 election.

The decline of support for his party and the biggest opposition protests of his rule have put him under pressure to address the concerns of Russians who want a stronger voice in politics and fear his return could hamper economic progress.

Gryzlov’s decision will be seen as a victory for the protesters, but may not appease them. Some observers had expected Putin to ensure he stepped aside in favour of a new speaker.

The decision fit into an apparent effort by Putin to set some distance between himself and the party, which has always been less popular than he is. Putin is chairman of United Russia but not a member.

Gryzlov, who turns 61 on Thursday, was entitled to one of United Russia’s seats in the Duma because of his position on the party’s candidate lists. Any candidate allotted a seat can refuse to take it and cede it to the next person in line.

Gryzlov, a former interior minister, once encapsulated the party’s legislative style for its critics by saying the Duma was “no place for discussions”.

Photo: Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (R) and speaker of Russia’s State Duma and United Russia party leader Boris Gryzlov
csm

The open-ended strike takes direct aim at the country’s already ailing economy. It is designed to erode Mr. Assad’s main base of support— the new and vibrant merchant classes who have benefited in recent years as the president opened up the economy.

If the economy continues to collapse, Mr. Assad could find himself with few allies inside the country, where calls are growing by the day for him to step down. The authoritarian president is struggling under international isolation and suffocating sanctions.

It was difficult to gauge the strength of the strike because the regime has banned most foreign journalists and prevented local reporters from moving freely. But there were signs it was being widely observed in particular in centers of antigovernment protest: the southern province of Daraa, the suburbs of the capital, Damascus, the northwestern region of Idlib and in the restive city of Homs.

The opposition wants the strike to remain in force until the regime pulls the army out of cities and releases thousands of detainees.

“Only bakeries, pharmacies and some vegetable shops are open,” said one resident of Homs who asked that his name not be published for fear of reprisals. He said those stores stayed open because they sell essential goods.

In addition to the strike, he said, security was tight in Homs on Monday with agents deployed at every intersection. The crackle of gunfire erupted sporadically.

“There is a terrifying security deployment in Homs,” he said.

Activists said a new round of clashes between Syrian troops and army defectors began Sunday with a major battle in the south and spread to new areas Monday, raising fears the conflict is spiraling toward civil war.

The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says new clashes between soldiers and defectors were reported Monday in Idlib in the north, and that fighting continued for a second day in southern Daraa province. At least eight people were reported killed nationwide on Monday.

On Sunday, army defectors set several military vehicles ablaze in a prolonged battle in Daraa province.

The uprising has grown increasingly violent in recent months as defecting soldiers fight back against the army and once-peaceful protesters take up arms to protect themselves against the military assault.

Amid the violence, the government pushed ahead with municipal elections that the opposition has dismissed as a meaningless concession that falls far short of their demands for Mr. Assad to give up power.

Witnesses said turnout was low. The opposition does not consider the vote a legitimate concession by the regime because it coincides with the deadly crackdown on antigovernment protesters. The regime had touted the vote as a reform measure because some new rules were introduced recently allowing more people to run in the election.

“The number of voters is very small,” said Mohamed Saleh, an activist in Homs. He said security in the city was very tight and people were too scared to go out. “Even in normal days, people did not give much attention to municipal elections,” he said.

Since the uprising began, Mr. Assad has made several gestures of reform. But after nine months, the opposition is demanding nothing less than the downfall of the regime.

The U.N. says more than 4,000 people have been killed since March. The revolt has raised concerns of a regional conflagration, given Syria’s strategic importance in the Middle East with alliances in Iran and with the Shiite militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

As the violence continues, there are fears that the conflict could morph into a civil war and exacerbate longstanding sectarian tensions.

Syria is overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim, but Mr. Assad and the ruling elite belong to the Alawite sect, which accounts for about 10 percent of the population.

The political domination by Alawites has bred seething resentments, which Mr. Assad tried to tamp down by enforcing the strictly secular ideology of his Baath Party.

But as the popular uprising surged, and Sunni army conscripts refused to fire on civilians, Mr. Assad called heavily upon his Alawite power base to crush the resistance, feeding sectarian tensions of the kind that fueled civil wars in neighboring Iraq and Lebanon.
WSJ

As voting began, security forces battled pro-opposition army defectors in fierce clashes that are overshadowing the peaceful street protests that began the uprising against Assad nine months ago with fears that Syria is drifting into civil war.

Monday also saw the second day of the opposition’s “Strike for Dignity,” widely supported in protest strongholds around the country and which activists say security forces have tried to break by force and threats.

Safar appealed to voters to “stand together to save our country from the conspiracies against us.”

Opposition activists said security forces were forcing people to go to the polls in Idlib province.

Assad, whose minority Alawite family has held power over majority Sunni Muslim Syria for four decades, faces the most serious challenge to his 11-year rule from the wave of protests which erupted in the southern city of Deraa on March 18.

Voters were heading to the polls in the morning, state media said, but it was unclear if there would be a big turnout in cities such as Homs, Hama and Deraa, where residents have been too scared by violence to leave their homes in recent days.

Assad’s government said the polls are part of a process of reform leading to a parliamentary election next year and constitutional reform. But critics say the polls have little significance as municipal officials have little power in a centralized autocratic government.

Assad, a close ally of Iran, a key player in neighboring Lebanon and supporter of militant groups opposed to Israel, has said reforms cannot be rushed in Syria, where his Baath Party has held a monopoly on power.

Syrian authorities say they are carrying out reforms and say protesters include people with legitimate demands but also include “outlaws” and “terrorists.”

FORCES MOVE TO BREAK STRIKE

Activists said fighting erupted in the southern town of Dael when security forces moved in to break up the strike.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also reported clashes between deserters and the army in parts of northern Idlib province, where at least three civilians were shot dead by the security forces.

Though the strike has found support in protest strongholds it has not taken hold in central parts of the capital Damascus or the business hub of Aleppo.

“We tell the Syrian people that this is a real opportunity to elect the right representatives who will undertake all their duties to the people,” Prime Minister Safar said. “Syria is passing through a very difficult stage.”

Four people were reported killed by security forces in Homs province on Monday, where the government says it is fighting “armed terrorist gangs” controlled from abroad. SANA news agency said the army killed one rebel, wounded others and arrested a leader.

Assad has been widely condemned abroad for a crackdown on peaceful protests, which the United Nations says has led to the death of over 4,000 people. His government says more than 1,100 members of the army, police, security and intelligence services have been killed.

CIVIL WAR OR CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE

Activists want the strike to take hold, boosting the number of Syrians prepared to oppose the government through civil disobedience rather than armed confrontation, which they fear could lead to civil war and play into the hands of Assad.

“The cost will be more human lives I am afraid. But it is less costly than an armed uprising and the regime dragging the country into a Libya-type scenario,” said Rima Fleihan, a member of the foreign-based opposition Syrian National Council.

SANA said the strike was a failure. It published an 8-page report to prove it, with pictures of busy shops and markets.

“The markets in Syrian provinces had normal movement yesterday … despite incitement by foreign-linked terrorist groups to stop economic and social activity,” it said.

Syria has barred most independent journalists, making it difficult to gauge the extent of violence, the strike, or participation in elections.

Syrian troops mainly from the 12th Armoured Brigade based in Isra, 40 km (25 miles) from the southern border with Jordan, fought rebels in the town of Busra al-Harir on Sunday.

The sound of explosions and heavy machinegun fire echoed in the rocky hills north of the town, where defectors from the army have been hiding and attacking military supply lines, according to residents and activists.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said Paris believed Syria was behind an attack that wounded five French peacekeepers in the United Nation’s Interim force in Lebanon on Friday, in a development likely to raise Western pressure on Assad.

“We have strong reason to believe these attacks came from there (Syria),” Juppe said on RFI radio on Sunday. “We think it’s most probable, but I don’t have proof.”

Damascus said it “categorically denies any Syrian connection to this act” adding that Juppe’s charge “lacked any evidence.”

France has led Western efforts to force Assad to end the crackdown. Juppe was first to suggest setting up zones to protect civilians — a step that could put Western powers on the path to military intervention.
Reuters

Medvedev responded on his Facebook site to the protesters’ complaints that the December 4 election, won by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s United Russia, was slanted in its favor.

But he did not mention their calls for an end to Putin’s rule and received one insult after another on his Facebook site from people who made clear his reply was insufficient.

“I do not agree with any slogans or statements made at the rallies. Nevertheless, instructions have been given by me to check all information from polling stations regarding compliance with the legislation on elections,” Medvedev said in a post on the social media site.

His statement was a sign that the Russian leadership feels under pressure after the biggest opposition protests since Putin rose to power in 1999. The protesters themselves used social media to organize their rallies.

But the protesters have demanded much more than just an investigation and are unlikely to be satisfied.

They want a rerun of the election, the sacking of Central Election Commission chief Vladimir Churov, the registration of opposition parties and the release of people they define as political prisoners.

Within hours of his statement, Medvedev had received several thousand comments on his Facebook site, many of them negative, plenty of them disrespectful and some of them highly insulting.

“We don’t believe you,” wrote Natalia Akhi.

Irina Arapova asked: “And who’s going to do the checking? The executive authorities (United Russia)?”

The next big day of protests is planned on December 24 when Alexei Navalny, one of the protest leaders, will have served a 15-day jail term received for his role in a protest last week.

CHANGE OF MOOD

Like Saturday’s protests, which followed big opposition rallies in Moscow and St Petersburg last week, the responses to Medvedev underlined how Russians’ faith in their leaders has fallen and that they are no longer afraid to show it.

Anger over the election — which international monitors and the United States found fault with — unleashed years of pent-up frustration with Putin and his tight political controls. Frustration had mounted since September, when he announced plans to reclaim the presidency next year, opening up the possibility of him ruling until 2024.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said Russia’s leaders should allow demonstrations to go ahead and learn lessons from the election for next year’s presidential vote.

“People don’t like it when one plays with the democratic process. ‘I am Prime Minister, and I’ll leave you the Presidency’ and vice-versa… that’s something that ends up shocking people,” Juppe said on RFI radio.

“We call on the Russian authorities to hold a dialogue, prevent violence, let the opposition demonstrate and learn the lessons for the organization of the next presidential elections.”

In a sign the authorities are starting to sense the change of mood, city authorities across Russia allowed Saturday’s peaceful protests to go ahead and riot police hardly intervened.

State television and other channels broadcast footage of Saturday’s big protest in Moscow, attended by tens of thousands, breaking a policy of showing almost no negative coverage of the authorities, although they included no criticism of Putin.

But there is no indication that Putin, Russia’s paramount leader, is about to bow to the protesters’ demands and most political experts still expect him to win the presidential election next March and swap jobs with Medvedev.

He is likely now to look for ways to show he has registered their concerns but try to ride out the protests, hoping they will fizzle out as quickly as they began. A statement by Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, gave no hint of concessions.

“We respect the point of view of the protesters, we are hearing what is being said, and we will continue to listen to them,” Peskov said.

RESURGENT OPPOSITION

“December 10, 2011 will go down in history as the day the country’s civic virtue and civil society was revived. After 10 years of hibernation, Moscow and all Russia woke up,” Boris Nemtsov, an opposition leader, wrote in his blog.

“The main reason why it was such a big success is that a feeling of self-esteem has awakened in us and we have all got so fed up with Putin’s and Medvedev’s lies, theft and cynicism that we cannot tolerate it any longer … Together we will win!”

It may not be that simple. The opposition has long been divided, most mainstream parties have little or no role in the rallies and keeping them up across the world’s largest country is hard at the best of times but especially in winter.

Most Russian political experts say Putin, the former KGB spy who has dominated the world’s largest energy producer for 12 years, is in little immediate danger of falling, despite anger over widespread corruption and the gap between rich and poor.

But they say the 59-year-old leader’s authority has been damaged and may gradually wane after he returns as president unless he acts to address the new mood.

“Putin has a formidable task. He has lost Moscow and St Petersburg, crucial cities where everything usually starts,” said political analyst and author Liliya Shevtsova. “He looks out of touch.”

Putin, as president for eight years until 2008 and as prime minister since then, built up a strongman image by restoring order after the chaos in the decade after the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991. But he no longer seems invincible.

He could release the state’s purse strings to satisfy the financial demands of some critics but many of the protesters in Moscow are middle-class people demanding more fundamental changes, such as relaxing the political system he controls.

His charges last week that the United States encouraged the protesters and financed them provoked scorn on the Internet.

Photo: Masked Russian nationalist activists look on during a demonstration in central Moscow December 11, 2011. On Saturday, tens of thousands gathered across Russia to express anger at the the result of recent parliamentary elections, the largest such mass opposition gathering since the end of the Soviet Union. REUTERS/Denis Sinyakov

Reuters

Turnout appeared low for the final day of run-off elections between individual candidates standing for the new parliament, which is to be chosen in a further two stages over coming months.

In voting last week for the new parties to be represented in the assembly, Islamists led by the influential Muslim Brotherhood as well as a new hardline Salafi movement picked up 65 per cent of ballots cast.

The prospect of an Islamist-dominated parliament raises fears among activists about civil liberties, women’s rights and religious freedom in a country with the Middle East’s largest Christian minority.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged the new Islamist power brokers to “embrace democratic norms and rules” and respect women’s rights and free religious practice.

“We expect all democratic actors and elected officials to uphold universal human rights,” she said in a speech to the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe.

slogans are not enough

Liberal presidential candidate Mohamed ElBaradei accused the Islamists of relying too heavily on slogans which he said would soon become apparent if they gained power.

“Let them govern and have their chance. People will realise that slogans are not enough,” Mr ElBaradei said in an interview published by the independent newspaper Al-Shuruq.

The liberal movement emerged with 29.3 per cent of the party vote in the first round, but it is split between six different coalitions and has been overshadowed by the more organised Islamist groups.

Mr ElBaradei’s main rival to be president, former Arab League head Amr Mussa, called for the Islamist parties to embrace the principles of democracy and modernity.

“We cannot talk about democracy and then object to the results. Democracy is about what the people want,” he said in Dubai. “But for those elected to power, they must understand that… they need to join this era and not disengage from it.”

Mr ElBaradei also stepped up his criticism of the military rulers who took power after the toppling of Mr Mubarak in February, accusing them of mishandling the process of ushering in democracy in the Arab world’s most populous nation.

“We live today in a fascist system with military tribunals and emergency law, and if there is another round of the revolution it will be full of anger and violence,” he said.

“The situation is going from bad to worse after the failure of the military council in managing the transition process,” said Mr ElBaradei, adding that young Egyptians were “completely despondent because nothing has changed”.

The army rulers have chosen a highly complex election process to elect a new upper and lower parliament as well as a president that will end only in June next year under the current timetable.

The first of the three rounds of voting to choose the lower house of parliament has revealed various problems in a country with a long history of electoral abuse during the Mubarak era.

On Monday, after a confusing delay of several days in releasing results, the election commission dramatically revised the turnout level from a “record” 62 per cent announced last week to 52 per cent.

It also said results from several polling stations in Cairo would be cancelled because of violations, meaning voting in these areas will be rerun in January.

The leader of the Muslim Brotherhood has threatened street protests if there is any attempt to manipulate results.

“We will take to the streets if there is any cheating in the elections or manipulation of the constitution,” its leader Mohammed Badei was quoted as saying in Egyptian media.

news.com.au

The High Election Commission said the Islamic fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party garnered 36.6 percent of the 9.7 million valid ballots cast for party lists. The Nour Party, a more hard-line Islamist group, captured 24.4 percent.

The strong Islamist showing worries liberal parties, and even some religious parties, who fear the two groups will work to push a religious agenda. It has also left many of the youthful activists behind the uprising that ousted Mubarak in February feeling that their revolution has been hijacked.

Since Mubarak’s fall, the groups that led the uprising and Islamists have been locked in a fight over the country’s new constitution. The new parliament will be tasked, in theory, with selecting a 100-member panel to draft the new constitution. But adding to tensions, the ruling military council that took over from Mubarak has suggested it will choose 80 of those members, and said parliament will have no say in naming a new government.

“The conflict will be over the soul of Egypt,” said Nabil Abdel-Fattah, a senior researcher at the state-sponsored Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, calling the new parliament “transitional” with a “very conservative Islamic” outlook.

The Brotherhood has emerged as the most organized and cohesive political force in these elections. But with no track record of governing, it is not yet clear how they will behave in power. The party has positioned itself as a moderate Islamist party that wants to implement Islamic law without sacrificing personal freedoms, and has said it will not seek an alliance with the more radical Nour party.

The ultraconservative Salafis who dominate the Nour Party are newcomers to the political scene. They had previously frowned upon involvement in politics and shunned elections. They espouse a strict interpretation of Islam similar to that of Saudi Arabia, where the sexes are segregated and women must be veiled and are barred from driving. Its members say laws contradicting religion can’t be passed.

A Nour Party spokesman, Yousseri Hamad, suggested over the weekend, for example, that alcohol should be banned and that a state agency could penalize Muslims for eating during the day during the holy month of Ramadan, when the devout fast from dawn to dusk.

Many in Egypt’s Coptic Christian population, which makes up 10 percent of the country, fear the Salafis will push for laws that will make them second-class citizens.

Egypt already uses Islamic law, or Shariah, as the basis for legislation. However, laws remain largely secular as Shariah does not cover all aspects of modern life.

If the Muslim Brotherhood chooses not to form an alliance with the Salafis, the liberal Egyptian Bloc — which came in third with 13.4 percent of the votes — could counterbalance hard-line elements.

It is also unclear how much influence the new parliament will have over Egypt’s democratic transition and how long it will even serve.

The Muslim Brotherhood has said it will challenge moves by the military to retain overall control of key aspects of governing and the transition. A strong showing by Islamists in the elections could boost its popular mandate to do so.

The power struggle within parliament could shape up as a fight among the different Islamist trends or between the Islamists and the liberal and secular forces.

The elections, which began Nov. 28, are the first since Mubarak’s ouster and the freest and fairest in Egypt’s modern history.

Turnout of around 60 percent was the highest in living memory as few participated in the heavily rigged votes under Mubarak.

The ballots are a confusing mix of individual races and party lists, and the Sunday results only reflect the party list performance for less than a third of the 498-seat parliament.

Another liberal list, the Wafd Party, received 7.1 percent, while the moderate Islamist Wasat or Centrist Party took 4.3 percent.

The final shape of the lower house of parliament will not be announced before January. Elections for the less powerful upper house will finish in March.

The next step in the complex process, a round of runoffs between more than 100 individual candidates competing in the first round for around 50 seats, is set for Monday and Tuesday.

WP

Ending days of intense speculation, the Republican presidential candidate announced he would suspend his campaign, a legal maneuver that allows him to request federal matching funds. The move followed accusations of sexual harassment, groping and, this week, a 13-year affair with a woman Cain insisted was merely a friend.

“My wife, my family and I, we know that those false and unproved allegations are not true,” said Cain, whose wife, Gloria, walked with him hand in hand, then stood behind him on a makeshift stage on the steps of the Atlanta headquarters Cain was to have opened Saturday. “So one of the first declarations that I want to make to you today is that I am at peace with my God. I am at peace with my wife. And she is at peace with me.”

Defiant and at times angry, Cain told the crowd that his Plan A — becoming president — would have to give way to Plan B, which he described as changing Washington from the outside.

“I am not going to be silenced and I am not going away,” said Cain, who thanked his supporters, acknowledged their disappointment and announced the launch of a new website, TheCainSolutions.com.

Veterans of other GOP presidential campaigns said Cain’s decision was to be expected.

“He was never a serious candidate, so I can’t say this was, in the end, very surprising,” said strategist Mike Murphy. “I think only people with real prior experience in national politics know how tough a process it is. For others like Cain, it looks fun, but then comes the rude awakening. It’s just not a business for amateurs.”

Sara Taylor Fagen, a former White House political director for George W. Bush and an advisor to former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who dropped out of the race earlier this year, said any expectation of personal privacy is a mistake.

“There are no secrets in politics anymore,” Fagen said. “If you engage in illegal activity or carry on with someone other than your spouse, don’t run for president.”

Though Cain retained a core of loyal supporters, many voters were put off by the accusations swirling around him. Others worried about an early stumble over his position on abortion and his lack of foreign policy experience, illustrated disastrously in a Nov. 14 meeting with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel in which he was unable to articulate an opinion on President Obama’s Libya policy.

In a poll released Friday, the Des Moines Register found that Cain was favored by only 8% of Iowa’s likely caucusgoers, plummeting from the 23% support he had a month ago.

Because Cain’s support was already waning, it’s unclear how his withdrawal will affect the race. Many strategists expect his supporters to migrate to Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, rather than to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Cain said he would soon endorse a candidate.

Several former rivals wished him well and applauded him for putting the issue of tax reform at the forefront of the GOP race. “He will continue to be a powerful voice in the conservative movement,” Gingrich said.

A tea party favorite who had toured the country in support of Americans for Prosperity, the anti-tax group backed by the billionaire Koch brothers, Cain delighted in dismissing the idea that he should be liberal because he is black, offering a rebuke to those who accused the movement of harboring racists.

His charisma, strong debate performances and compelling rags-to-riches story propelled him from a curiosity to the top of the polls, albeit briefly.

“I grew up in a world of segregated water fountains,” Cain said Saturday. “My father was a chauffeur; my mother was a maid. And we showed that you didn’t have to have a degree from Harvard in order to run for president.”

Had he remained at the back of the pack, it is possible Cain’s private life would never have been subject to scrutiny. But as Cain frequently pointed out, turning around to show crowds an imaginary target on his back, he could not escape the negative attention as his profile rose.

A successful Atlanta radio talk show host, motivational speaker and author after retiring as chief executive of Godfather’s Pizza, Cain joined the race in May. His announcement before a crowd of 15,000 at Atlanta Memorial Park was virtually the only other time in an almost seven-month campaign that his wife stood at his side in public.

Cain was the first candidate in this election to introduce an easily digestible alternative to the complex federal tax code. His catchy “9-9-9″ plan called for a system of 9% flat taxes. He repeated the three numbers like an expert pitchman, but sometimes ran into trouble when pressed on the details. Many analysts said the plan would cut taxes on the rich and raise taxes on the middle class.

Throughout, Cain signaled he’d be a different sort of candidate. He wore sunglasses and sometimes greeted crowds with the corny phrase, “Aww, shucky ducky, as the man would say.” He occasionally broke into song. He would charm crowds by responding to criticism with a quote from his unschooled grandfather: “I does not care.”

But there was a downside to being unconventional. Cain’s small staff seemed frequently at wit’s end. Plans to meet donors sometimes fell through.

Instead of concentrating on the early-voting states, Cain launched a book tour in September, making stops all over the country that fed speculation he wasn’t serious about the nomination. Cain, who disputed that, subtitled his memoir “My Journey to the White House.”

Steve Duprey, a New Hampshire GOP committeeman and campaign veteran, said candidates who don’t build strong organizations have trouble surviving bad news. “They lack the roots under that tree that help sustain you when the going gets rough,” Duprey said.

A festive mood had prevailed Saturday outside Cain’s would-be headquarters. Before Cain arrived in his custom campaign bus, there was bunting, barbecue and blaring pop music; there was a sign-up sheet for volunteers and $50 Herman Cain golf shirts for sale. Soon, many of his supporters were dejected.

“I just — I’m heartbroken,” said Hokey Sloan, 63, a restaurateur from Auburn, Ga. “He was the one candidate I could really agree with.”

LAT

The party formed by the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s mainstream Islamist group, appeared to have taken about 40 percent of the vote, as expected. But a big surprise was the strong showing of ultraconservative Islamists, called Salafis, many of whom see most popular entertainment as sinful and reject women’s participation in voting or public life.

Analysts in the state-run news media said early returns indicated that Salafi groups could take as much as a quarter of the vote, giving the two groups of Islamists combined control of nearly 65 percent of the parliamentary seats.

That victory came at the expense of the liberal parties and youth activists who set off the revolution, affirming their fears that they would be unable to compete with Islamists who emerged from the Mubarak years organized and with an established following. Poorly organized and internally divided, the liberal parties could not compete with Islamists disciplined by decades as the sole opposition to Mr. Mubarak. “We were washed out,” said Shady el-Ghazaly Harb, one of the most politically active of the group.

Egyptian Salafists, carrying a picture of the late Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, protest in front of the U.S. Embassy after the weekly Friday prayer in Cairo last May 2011

Although this week’s voting took place in only a third of Egypt’s provinces, they included some of the nation’s most liberal precincts — like Cairo, Port Said and the Red Sea coast — suggesting that the Islamist wave is likely to grow stronger as the voting moves into more conservative rural areas in the coming months. (Alexandria, a conservative stronghold, also has voted.)

The preliminary results extend the rising influence of Islamists across a region where they were once outlawed and oppressed by autocrats aligned with the West. Islamists have formed governments in Tunisia and Morocco. They are positioned for a major role in post-Qaddafi Libya as well. But it is the victory in Egypt — the largest and once the most influential Arab state, an American ally considered a linchpin of regional stability — that has the potential to upend the established order across the Middle East.

Islamist leaders, many jailed for years under Mr. Mubarak, were exultant. “We abide by the rules of democracy, and accept the will of the people,” Essam el-Erian, a leader of the Brotherhood’s new party, wrote in the British newspaper The Guardian. “There will be winners and losers. But the real — and only — victor is Egypt.”

Results will not be final until January, after two more rounds of voting. And the ultimate scope of the new Parliament’s power remains unclear because Egypt has remained under military rule since Mr. Mubarak resigned as president in February. But Parliament is expected to play a role in drafting a new Constitution with the ruling military council, although the council has given contradictory indications about how much parliamentary input it will allow.

The emergence of a strong Islamist bloc in Parliament is already quickening a showdown with the military. Brotherhood leaders announced Wednesday that they expected the Islamist parliamentary majority to name a prime minister to replace the civilian government now serving the military. In response, a senior official of the military-led government insisted that the ruling generals would retain that prerogative.

The unexpected rise of a strong ultraconservative Islamist faction to the right of the Brotherhood is likely to shift Egypt’s cultural and political center of gravity to the right as well. Leaders of the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party will likely feel obliged to compete with the ultraconservatives for Islamist voters, and at the same time will not feel the same need to compromise with liberals to form a government.

“It means that, if the Brotherhood chooses, Parliament can be an Islamists affair — a debate between liberal Islamists, moderate Islamists and conservatives Islamists, and that is it,” Michael Wahid Hanna, an Egyptian-born researcher at the Century Foundation in Cairo, said this week.

The ultraconservative Salafi parties, meanwhile, will be able to use their electoral clout to make their own demands for influence on appointments in the new government. Mr. Hanna added: “I don’t mind saying this is not a great thing. It is not a joyous day on my end.”

If the majority proves durable, the longer-term implications are hard to predict. The Brotherhood has pledged to respect basic individual freedoms while using the influence of the state to nudge the culture in a more traditional direction. But the Salafis often talk openly of laws mandating a shift to Islamic banking, restricting the sale of alcohol, providing special curriculums for boys and girls in public schools, and censoring the content of the arts and entertainment.

Their leaders have sometimes proposed that a special council of religious scholars advise Parliament or the top courts on legislation’s compliance with Islamic law. Egyptian election laws required the Salafi parties to put at least one woman on their electoral roster for each district, but they put the women last on their lists to ensure they would not be elected, and some appear with pictures of flowers in place of their faces on campaign posters.

Sheik Hazem Shouman, an important Salafi leader, recently rushed into a public concert on the campus of Mansoura University to try to persuade the crowd to turn away from the “sinful” performance and go home. He defended his actions on a television talk show, saying he had felt like a doctor making an emergency intervention to save a patient dying of cancer.

The new majority is likely to increase the difficulty of sustaining the United States’ close military and political partnership with post-Mubarak Egypt, though the military has said it plans to maintain a monopoly over many aspects of foreign affairs. Islamist political leaders miss no opportunity to criticize Washington’s policies toward Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel and the Palestinians. And while Brotherhood leaders have said they intend to preserve but perhaps renegotiate the 1979 Camp David peace treaty with Israel, the Salafi parties have been much less reassuring. Some have suggested putting the treaty to a referendum.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, an Israeli official acknowledged concerns: “Obviously, it is hard to see in this result good news for Israel.”

Some members of Egypt’s Coptic Christian minority — about 10 percent of the population — joked Wednesday that they would prepare to leave the country. Previously protected by Mr. Mubarak’s patronage, many have dreaded the Islamists’ talk of protecting the Islamic character of Egypt. Some Brotherhood leaders often repeat that they believe citizenship is an equal right of all regardless of sect, even chanting at some campaign rallies that Copts are also “sons of Egypt.” But Salafis more often declare that Christians should not fear Islamic law because it requires the protection of religious minorities, an explanation that many Christians feel assigns them second-class status.

Most Copts voted for the liberal Egyptian bloc, which was vying for second place with the Salafis in some reports. It was an eclectic alliance against the Islamists, dominated by the Social Democrats, a left-leaning party with ties to the revolution’s leaders, and by the Free Egyptians, the business-friendly party founded and promoted by Naguib Sawiris, the Coptic Christian media-and-telecommunications tycoon.

The results indicated that some of the candidates and slates put forward by the former ruling party appeared to have won back their seats. It was unclear how large a bloc they might form, but they could prove sympathetic to the familiar mantra of stability-above-all that the ruling military is putting forward.

NYT