And so Lebanon dodges another bullet. What was billed, by all sides, as being potentially an explosive event ended up being a whimper just like the Elliot had predicted in “The Hollow Men” :

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

But has the problem been solved or have we applied the traditional Lebanese formula that has been in control of the country for over fifty years. La Ghaleb wa la Maghloob. No winners no losers. What a crock. Why anyone should be obligated to act responsibly if the outcome never matters. It always ends with the La Ghaleb wa la Maghloob.

In the last round things are different. No matter what kind of a spin anyone wishes to apply to the outcome Mr. Mikati has scored a touchdown in the last seconds of the fourth quarter. As a result the big losers are both Hezbollah who promised that the STL will never be financed and then obviously the clAoun who never seems to know what he wants. It is as if he is always waiting for orders from Damascus.

But this apparent victory is hollow. It does not mean much.  Lebanon is still waiting for the real independent Najib Mikati to stand up and make a statement that is based on nothing else but the Lebanese national interest. He has not done that yet and it is highly unlikely that he would. The FPM on the other hand is busy bending itself into a pretzel form to say that what they have always cared most about is the integrity of Lebanon more than the simple singular issue of STL finance. The only response to that is bunk!!! This fiasco has demonstrated again the lack of professionalism, the amateurism in decision making and the total incompetence of those in charge of the FPM. But don’t blame them blame those that have voted for them without holding them responsible for anything and blame those that will vote for them again.

But the biggest looser by far is Hezbollah. A party that has threatened and cajoled a people on this very same issue that they had to eventually agree to. It will be next to impossible to explain rationally this flip flop of Hezbollah.

But Lebanon has not won except a small moral victory. HA still acts as a state within a state. Note the recent problem with electric generation at AlZahrani power generation plant. The official Lebanese authorities have not been allowed to enter that area because it is only a “ghost” part of Lebanon an incorporeal region. The South is ruled by HA and neither the Lebanese Army, nor the Lebanese PM nor the Lebanese President have much to say about that.

Unfortunately Lebanon’s problems are not limited to those mentions, as seminal as they might be. The opposition; March 14; is not in a much more enviable shape. Sa’ad Hariri has demonstrated amply enough that he was not born to lead. He is neither charismatic, nor well read he is neither creative nor principled. He simply has no vision; if he does he has not articulated it. The others in his camp are at least equally as disadvantaged and even more so. Samir Geagea carries so much baggage from the civil war that he must never be given even the chance to lead while the Gemayels will never be able to escape from their self made image of religious and political dinosaurs. Mr. Jumblatt appears to be a liability to both sides.

Lebanon’s salvation is in modernity, democracy and a clearly defined bill of rights, i.e. a truly secular society. But how can we have a secular society when the Patriarch, the head of the largest Church in Lebanon behaves on a daily basis as a political chieftain, a non elected one for that matter. What hubris and what chutzpah. Why does he think that he is qualified and/or entitled to act as a political feudal lord when he is at best a priest, a man of the cloth who is supposed to offer some guidance to his flock on strictly spiritual basis? The Maronite patriarch and all the other Christian church leaders must, in the name of Christianity, renounce all semblances of political power and simply encourage their flock to develop an identity that transcends religion. If they fail to do that then they fail the basics of the Judeo Christian ethics, the egalitarianism of St Francis of Assisi.

And in all fairness the same is true of the Moslem Sunni Mufti. He must emphasis to his followers that to be a good citizen of a state does not diminish one’s ability to be a good observant Moslem. Religion is a personal matter and must not be brought into the public square. That is purely for the secular. And that is another fatal flaw in Hezbollah who have stated clearly their belief in Wilayat Al Faqih. It simply states that the head of the church is to dictate and rule. No one else is important. That is autocratic and dictatorial. That is the interpretation of Qom and not Najjaf.

Yet I will be willing to put at risk everything of value to me in order to protect the right of Hezbollah to the freedom of self expression and belief but not for the right to abuse this freedom by taking a whole country hostage. They can rationalize it any way that they want but no one has a monopoly on resistance and no one has a right to establish a state within a state through illegitimate force and foreign interfernece.

A democratic Lebanon shall rise from the ashes and the tyranny of hooliganism and vigilantes shall perish. Either the outright fall of the Syrian regime or the introduction of meaningful democratic changes ogre well for Lebanon. They would only mean the diminution of the HA power. But let us remember that that is not enough in itself for the establishment of a potentially vibrant democracy. We have to declaw the other clerics also, the Patriarch and the Mufti.

Old habits die hard, actually at times they never die. This is a good thing if the habit in question is that of integrity, high ethical standards, intellectual curiosity and creative thinking. But it is a bad when the characteristic in question is that of being addicted to superficiality, megalomania and a squeaky wheel. Lebanon is cursed by having one of political heavyweights behave like a Dean of the latter group, a group that is addicted to obstructionism, nepotism superficiality and bluster.  General Michele Aoun has exemplified the role of being the squeaky wheel of Lebanese politics, the wheel that needs to be oiled in order to stop the aural damage and lessen the demagoguery.

The self proclaimed saver of the Christians and the most principled of the Lebanese politicians prevented the formation of the present cabinet for weeks by constantly raising peripheral issues and meaningless objections. Then all of a sudden he forgot about all the issues that he had objected to and consented to the cabinet formation essentially unchanged. What is it that had changed? Was it orders from Damascus and/or Tehran? We will never know for sure but that is the most likely explanation.

As if the above sophomoric behavior is not enough, yesterday the General instructs his cabinet ministers not to attend a regularly scheduled cabinet meeting and hints that his parliamentary bloc might resign from the cabinet if it dares approve honouring Lebanons’ obligations to the STL. What is strange about this issue is that the Premiere, Mr. Mikati, has always insisted that his cabinet is committed to fulfilling all the international obligations of the country. If everyone, the world over, has known about this for months then why did mon General not know about it? Is it because he was asked to join the cabinet when he did and now he is being asked to quit? There is no other explanation.

Mr. Mikati should dismiss the childish behavior of the FPM and carry on doing the peoples’ business. Lebanon can hardly afford a cabinetary vacuum at this moment. But that would not be enough. Mr. Mikati has an obligation to govern as the effective Lebanese independent politician that he promised us to be. He should use his bully pulpit to lobby for policies that benefit the Lebanese citizen and should shame the ideologues and obstructionists into supporting policies that are guided by the national interest no more and no less. That includes but is not limited to favouring policies that will stand up to dictators and to threats from reactionary regimes built on fear and brutality.

This cabinet has thus far failed to be effective and has failed to govern. Its major problem is the lack of harmony between its members and in particular between the FPM and everybody else. The Premiere has the duty to form a cabinet in his image and not to conform to the whimsical wants of a group of ministers that are focused on histrionics and grabbing headlines. There is a popular folkloric tale in Lebanon about Jeha who broke the spout of the only clean water reservoir in the village so as to be noticed. That is nothing else but a need to be noticed, an ego full of misplaced hubris. Such an individual “habitually infuses inordinate emotion and self-dramatization into interpersonal and social persona”. That simply means that The General is “over the top”, he has become nothing else but a caricature , a person who is in love with himself. Lebanon needs better politicians and Mr. Mikati should bring the General back to earth by ignoring him.

Jumblatt who was a key member of March 14 alliance defected to the Hezbollah led alliance in August 2009 and in 2011 he voted in favor of PM Nagib Mikati as the new prime minister .

Bassil also said that the government did not carry out what it was expected to do.

“Hezbollah is postponing the battle inside the government and neutralizing itself,” Bassil added.

“Hezbollah cannot just sit down and and watch the mistakes being committed; the Resistance cannot fight Israel at the border and not fight corruption inside the government.” He said

Reported circulated in Beirut last Thursday about heated verbal clashes that took place during Wednesday night’s cabinet session between Progressive Socialist Party and Free Patriotic Movement ministers.

This would not have been the first time that a member of the PSP clashed with FPM ministers. The two groups clashed over the energy plan that was presented by FPM’s Bassil before it was amended and approved by the cabinet and parliament last September.

Similarly today MP Michel Aoun said that the cabinet is not one color government and called on Hezbollah to fight corruption inside the cabinet .

Telecommunications Minister Charbel Nahhas, a representative of the FPM, has so far refused to transfer telecoms revenues to the Finance Ministry.

Nahhas’ refusal came under fire from Public Works and Transportation Minister Ghazi Aridi. Aridi’s criticism of Nahhas prompted the latter’s colleague in the FPM, Energy Minister Gibran Bassil, to take up his defense.

The lengthy debate, which took place during a session that lasted for more than six hours, saw Bassil snap back at Aridi and accuse him of spending funds on infrastructure works, particularly “asphalting roads,” without the prior approval of the government.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who presided over the meeting held at the Grand Serail, didn’t intervene to put an end to the debate and the session ended without reaching an agreement over the issue. However, ministers denied the argument had taken place when speaking to reporters as they left the meeting.

Wednesday’s debate wasn’t the first between members of the FPM and the PSP, who have disputed several ministerial resolutions recently, with the fiercest debate taking place over a proposal to develop Lebanon’s electricity sector, based on a plan authored by Bassil.

Last month, PSP ministers refused to endorse Bassil’s proposal without introducing amendments to the plan, a position that Mikati backed, fueling tension between the prime minister and the PSP on the one hand and the FPM on the other.

DS

“[Rival] parties do not want to engage in dialogue to strengthen Lebanon, but are seeking to disarm the Resistance, and this is a matter we reject,” Layoun – a member of March 8’s Free Patriotic Movement – told the Voice of Lebanon (93.3) radio station.

He added that the FPM “has strong faith that Lebanon is strong by having the arms of its Resistance pointed at Israel.”

The Syrian- Iranian-backed Hezbollah group has ruled out its readiness to address the issue of its weapons in the national dialogue, while the western-backed March 14 parties said they will not take part in the dialogue unless the issue is discussed.

Members of the opposition have been calling for the disarmament of the Shia group, which – they said – has used its arms against the people and to exert political pressure.

Now Lebanon

“Be Careful what you wish for because it might come true” is a proverb that the FPM should have taken to heart. Ever since its inception general Michel Aoun has coveted power. Obviously his first goal was that of the presidency and arguably it was that desire which led him to conclude that Faustian bargain with Hezbollah.  The traditional seats of opposition were not good enough for him and his allies and so they resorted to all sorts of machinations and bizarre tactics that culminated in their getting a veto power in a cabinet after a parliamentary election that they did not win. Many, including yours truly, blame March 14 for blinking first.

But a veto power was not enough; Hezbollah and its allies had their eyes set on the cabinet. Well four months ago they brilliantly executed a legal parliamentary maneuver that forced the cabinet led by Sa’ad Hariri to resign. They also managed to convince Walid Jumblatt and his bloc to cast their votes with them and against March 14. As a result they did become the new majority especially after agreeing to support the candidacy of Mr. Mikati who was in turn supported by another two parliamentarians from Tripoli. That was when the wish to form the majority became true. Not much since then has gone right either for the FPM, HA or the new majority. It has been over nine weeks since the official designation of Mr. Mikati as the new PM but all what has happened is to run on the spot.

The FPM through its leader GMA, has frustrated the efforts to form a cabinet by coming up with all sorts of impossible demands.  It is not farfetched to conclude that these demands were designed on purpose to be impossible to meet since there was no interest by the senior partner ; Hezbollah; to form a one colour cabinet. I suspect that when the plan to force the March 14 cabinet to resign was hatched, HA accepted to support the nomination of Mr. Mikati, an independent politician, hoping that March 14 will agree to join the cabinet in a junior capacity. That would have enabled them to present the cabinet as a “national unity” government which will force the hand of the US and other countries to accept the new set up which in effect would be controlled by Hezbollah.

When Mr. Mikati proved to be more independent than Hezbollah had bargained for and when he failed to get March 14 to join the cabinet Hezbollah’s plan to rule by using others as a front collapsed. That is when Hezbollah and its allies, primarily the FPM, had to go to plan B, a plan to bargain for time and to find a way of withdrawing the designation of premiership from Mr. Mikati. Hezbollah has been the puppet master ever since 2005 and the role continues. They pull the strings and the FPM dances to their tune.

The latest despicable act in this charade became clear two days ago. As usual, the FPM agreed to instigate a crisis through one of their favourite two actors in the cabinet. This time it was the turn of Minister Nahas when two weeks ago it was Mr. Basil and prior to that it was Nahas. This time around the plan seemed to work very well initially until the details of what went on became available. Mr. Nahas, the current telecommunication minister in the takeover cabinet, put on a spectacular show. He demanded the right to dismantle telecommunication equipment and move them from one company ,OGERO, to another, MTC. When the ISF, under the leadership of Rifi prevented Mr., Nahas from entering the premises he contacted the interior minister Baroud complaining about the ISF behavior. Ziad Baroud ordered Rifi to allow Mr. Nahas and his entourage to complete their task. Mr. Rifi refused to obey an order from his superior  which led Mr. Baroud to resign. Now let us look behind the scenes to understand the motives for this charade.

An important principle in law is to ask the question what does a person know and when did she know it? Well in this case Mr. Nahas cannot claim that the telecommunication equipment was a surprise to him since he was one of the official delegation  that received this equipment and celebrated its installation in the presence of the Chinese ambassador whose government has donated the equipment in question over a year ago. So if neither the equipment nor its installation was a surprise why didn’t the minister complain/confiscate the equipment a year ago or maybe two months ago? The answer is very simple; he wanted to put on a PR show full of theatrics demonstrating the bankruptcy of the outgoing cabinet and the vigilance of the new majority.  The FPM has already demanded both the Interior ministry and the telecommunication and 8- 9 other ministries and this debacle where minister Baroud exploded prematurely showing a weakness to take a stand and demand an investigation of the behavior of both Mr.Rifi and Mr.Nahas.  This appeared to strengthen  the demand for a stronger interior minister in addition to making a case that Mr. Nahas was vigilante and must retain his cabinet assignment in the new government.  The plan to form a cabinet four months ago did not materialize, the plan to obfuscate and delay has worked for a while until it became evident that those who call for the immediate formation of a new cabinet are the ones who are erecting , behind the scenes, all the barriers to prevent the cabinet formation. And finally the latest plan to present FPM as the saviours and to force Mr. Mikati to form a cabinet where the PM is only a figure head has also backfired. This whole show was planned and had no merit.

The wish to rule was granted 9 weeks ago but as the proverb says: beware of what you wish for, it might just happen. FPMs quest for power is never ending and unprincipled. What is worse is that they do not realize that they are merely puppets manipulated by the Grand puppeteer Hezbollah.

No one doubts that Gibran Basil is not another political figure who lost his parliamentary seat in the last elections in Lebanon. He is much more than that, he is the son in law of General Michel Aoun,  the head of the FPM political party in Lebanon and thus is entitled to a cabinet ministry in every Lebanese government.  Most assume that the present standoff where the Prime Minister designate, Mr. Mikati, has not been able to form a cabinet, is primarily due to the obstructionist policies followed by Michel Aoun  is demanding  that Mr. Basil, his protégé , be given the Interior Ministry. (It is ironic that such nepotism is being advocated by the party who claims the mantel of reform, go figure).

As bad as the above might sound, the recent positions of the FPM, as articulated through its favourite politician, is nothing short of pure demagoguery. It does not take a genius to figure out that when a government, an institution or even a household that is already facing a structural deficit will be committing suicide by decreasing the level of income when the expenditures are essentially contractual agreements that cannot be reduced. But that is exactly what the FPM has been suggesting openly and I might add with the implicit support of its allies who have stood by as this destructive charade is allowed to continue.

Lebanon consumes every year about 500 liters of gasoline per capita. These 2 Billion liters of gasoline have been subject to a tax LL9530 per 20 liters. The revenue derived by the Lebanese authorities from this tax amounted to over $650 million during 2010. The government used these funds, in combination with its other revenues, to finance the national debt and provide the meager level of services that its equally meager resources allow it to provide. Note that the Lebanese government is not in a position to adopt an austerity budget since things cannot possibly become more austere than they currently are. So what does the think tank of the FPM come up with to ease the pain and the burden of the Lebanese citizen? Why not cut the revenue of the government from the oil tax by half? Yes you heard it right. All sorts of political pressures were used to force the tax to be cut from LL9530 to LL4530. That effectively took away from the already strapped Lebanese government over $300 million each year. But that was not enough, the FPM is at it again. Mr. Basil, with the blessings of the FPM and all its allies wants to eliminate this government revenue totally. They wish to eliminate the remaining $300-320 million of annual revenue. So what is wrong in taking the side of the poor consumer you ask? Well everything in this case.

Any individual with an IQ above 70 would tell you that when the government is in such a tight fiscal position then no tax relief is acceptable unless it is paid for. This simply means that a decrease of the sum of revenue from one source needs to be compensated for by an equal increase from another source otherwise bankruptcy and financial collapse will become inevitable. The $650 million lost to the Lebanese treasury, if not compensated for would increase the level of national indebtedness. Ironically the debt will increase by more than the tax cut since the new debt carries a rate of interest . In addition  had the $650 million tax cut not been exercised, it would have decreased the level of debt and the interest rate required to finance it.

In a world best characterized by peak oil, a region in political turmoil, a global economy struggling to find its footing and above all the threat of climate change hanging in the balance it is wrong, immoral and irresponsible to encourage the consumption of fossil fuels.

The current proposal for tax relief suffers of two major shortcomings: (1) It is ecologically irresponsible and (2) it is economically misinformed. A far better strategy would be to reinstate the first LL 5000 tax per 20 liters that has already been implemented by offering an equal tax cut targeted to benefit the poor and the needier.  This policy must not be allowed to pass.

Note: The suggestion by Mr. Basil to transition to natural gas is not without merit except for the fact, and he would be the first to admit it, that such a plan is for the long run not the short or even the intermediate since it places major needs on the infrastructure).

He said that Nahas’ conduct with PM Saad Hariri is immoral.

Majdalani’s comment comes after another March 14 MP accused Nahas of corruption .

During a press conference on Friday March 14 MP Ghazi Youssef accused Telecommunications Minister Charbel Nahhas of using the ministry funds illegally.

Youssef revealed to the media that Nahas instructed both Fransabank and Bank Audi – Saradar to issue checks amounting to $300,000 in the name of his personal adviser Moussa Khoury

During in an interview with An-Nahar newspaper that was published on Saturday Youssef called on the financial prosecutor general to interrogate Nahas over the illegal use of public funds and said he is ready to provide all the evidence itn his posession

Another March 14 MP Ziad al-Qadiri said during a press conference last Monday at the parliament that Nahas is violating the law and the constitution in his handling of telecommunications finances.

According to local reports Nahas, a member of the Free patriotic Movement which is closely associated with Hezbollah has refused to transfer the revenues generated by the telephone ministry to the Lebanese treasury.

Another March 14 MP Riad Rahhal said last Monday that Nahas ought to resign because of his insult to Prime Minister Saad Hariri and ” for being a failure at his job”.

Rahhal described Nashas as the ” student of the school of hatred, lies and collaboration.”

During the last cabinet meeting Nahas accused the March 14 majority of succumbing to Washington and Israel, but Hariri replied: “These statements are not acceptable. Israel puts pressure on you and people like you, but not on us.”

A former army chief, Aoun, 73, was forced into exile after being defeated in a Syrian offensive in 1990 at the end of Lebanon’s 15-year civil war.

He had declared a “war of liberation” against enemy forces.

Aoun returned in May 2005, a month after Damascus ended 29 years of military domination in Lebanon. Aoun’s first visit to Syria following his return was in December, 2008, which he called “a friendly and introductory visit.”

Karam , who was arrested last month on suspicion of collaborating with Israel has been detained at Internal Security Forces (ISF)—Information Branch’s prison since his arrest last August.

There were conflicting reports about his health

While some sources reported that he is undergoing a bypass surgery Voice of Lebanon radio station, said Karam was taken to hospital for “routine medical checkup.”

FPM’s Tayyar website, for its part, said Karam was rushed to the hospital after falling ill. It gave no other details.