Major-General Amir Eshel, head of the Israeli military’s planning division, said the working assumption was the regime of President Bashar al-Assad would eventually fall.

“The question is when, not if. And the big question is what’s going to come the day after,” he said.

“The immediate concern is the huge stockpiles of chemicals, biologicals (weapons), strategic capabilities that are still going into Syria, mainly from eastern Europe,” Eshel said.

“That’s a major concern because I don’t know who is going to own those the day after. Up till now, what has been transferred to Hezbollah? What will be transferred to Hezbollah? What will be divided between those factions inside Syria? What is that going to create?

“We are talking about huge stockpiles,” he said.

The regime has spearheaded a bloody crackdown on pro-democracy activists seeking to overthrow Assad, who has vowed to remain in power, raising the spectre of civil war between Syria’s many religious sects if he steps down.

Eshel said the threat of civil war was a real possibility if Assad clung to power.

“If Assad will adopt this Yemenite model and leave, it might prevent a civil war,” he said, referring to an agreement that saw Yemen’s former president Ali Abdullah Saleh agree in November to leave power.

“But if he won’t leave of his own will, we might get into civil war,” he said. “If there will be a civil war, it might be a disaster.”

Eshel also warned that Syria faces bankruptcy, which could create new instability.

“I think the major challenge the Syrians will face in a few months, is bankruptcy. The reserves will be zero, and this is going to create, I think, internal turmoil. We can expect refugees in many countries.”

On January 10, Israel’s Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Benny Gantz told MPs that the military was preparing for the possibility of an influx of Syrian refugees, particularly on the occupied Golan Heights.

vancouversun.com

Syria's Al-Safir chemical warfare complex (right, marked in green) and the Kafr Aakkar missile base (left, marked in light blue). An SA-2 missile is seen on the far right (marked in red)

Former rebels say they took some ammunition for the fight against Moammar Gadhafi, but U.S. officials and others have expressed fears Libya’s weapons could fall into the wrong hands.

The six-month civil war that ended Gadhafi’s 42-year rule and sent him into hiding also threw open the gates to his regime’s extensive armories. The country’s new leaders, who are struggling to establish a government, have failed to secure many of the caches, making them free game for looters, former rebel fighters or anyone with a truck to carry them away.

Since Gadhafi’s fall last month, American and U.N. officials have warned that the failure to control Libya’s weapons could destabilize the whole of North Africa.

Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton called on Libya’s new leaders to secure the ousted regime’s weapons. “They still have a huge hill to climb,” Clinton said. “But they are working with the international community to secure both chemical weapons stockpiles as well as conventional weapons.”

However, visits by The Associated Press to weapons caches around Tripoli show that many remain poorly guarded and have already been heavily looted. About a dozen rebels wandered around one site the AP visited on Wednesday, where a large hangar was strewn with the boxes of missing weapons. Rebels at another site were leaving with a load of tank shells they said they were taking to a safe place for storage. They acknowledged, however, that they’d found the site unguarded.

It remains unclear how many weapons have been uncovered in Tripoli since Gadhafi’s fall, said Peter Bouckaert of Human Rights Watch, who has been searching the city for them.

Lots of munitions appear to have been hidden in civilian buildings to avoid airstrikes by NATO, which bombed regime military targets under a United Nations mandate to protect civilians.

At one unguarded site, Bouckaert said he found 100,000 anti-tank and anti-personnel mines. Elsewhere, he found weapons caches hidden under fruit trees.

“The problem is that the locals usually find out first and by the time we arrive and we can get some guards there, a lot of the most dangerous weapons have already been taken away,” he said.

A green sign at the entrance of a site the AP visited Wednesday said the facility belonged to the Libyan Education Ministry. The large hangar was strewn with hundreds of crates of mortars and tank shells.

Empty boxes of rifle ammunition and the anti-aircraft guns the former rebels fixed to the backs of trucks to fight Gadhafi’s soldiers were scattered on the floor. Among them were dozens of long skinny boxes for missiles — all of them empty.

Numbered codes on the boxes and packing slips inside indicated some were Russian-made anti-tank missiles. Others held shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles designed to bring down airplanes, helicopters or drones.

Salim Badi, a rebel who said his brigade came the day before to secure the site, said he’d been there 10 days earlier and found many more weapons.

He guessed the rebel fighters had taken the rifle and anti-aircraft ammunition, but doubted they’d taken the missiles.

“None of the rebels would take this stuff,” he said, standing over an open box of tank shells. “These here, we don’t even know what to do with them.”

Bouckaert said the missing missiles could be used to down airplanes.

“If these weapons start flooding around, it’s an absolute disaster for commercial flights in this region,” he said.

Neither of the warehouses the AP visited had traces of chemical weapons, and Bouckaert said he’d seen no evidence of chemical weapons in his search. The U.N. chief weapons watchdog said Wednesday that Libya’s remaining chemical weapon stockpiles are believed to be secure.

Ahmet Uzumcu, director general of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, said his inspectors left the country in February when the anti-Gadhafi uprisings started and will return “when the conditions allow us.”

Uzumcu said Wednesday he had heard from sources that the “remaining stockpiles of chemical weapons are secured.” He did not identify his sources.

In 2004, Gadhafi agreed to dismantle his weapons of mass destruction, and his regime underscored its commitment by using bulldozers to crush 3,300 unloaded bombs that could have been used to deliver chemical weapons.

But more common munitions, like mortars and tank shells, could be used to make roadside or car bombs by anyone wishing to fight Libya’s new government.

“If people want to mount an insurgency against the new rebel government … all they have to do is drive some trucks into some of these buildings and they can remove enough to fight an insurgency for years,” he said.

Rebels were leaving a second site the AP visited Wednesday with a large truck full of crates of mortars. Fighter Abdel-Hamid al-Koti, 30, said his group would cart the munitions back to their hometown of Misrata for safekeeping.

Inside, a hangar with four large storerooms stood behind a row of building supplies stores and next to a house with grapevines growing over the entryway.

One room held hundreds of crates of tank shells. Another was full to the ceiling with mortars. Yet another contained thousands of land mines.

The remains of hundreds of empty munitions boxes littered some of the rooms and the sandy alley outside.

Al-Koti said he didn’t know how many munitions had been taken from the site before his group arrived or who took them.

“When we came today, this is how it looked,” he said, gesturing at the empty weapons crates. “We didn’t find anyone here.”

WP

Photo: Large mortar shells sit unguarded, and boxes that once held anti-aircraft missiles and other heavy weapons are strewn about arms depots around Tripoli on Wednesday Sept. 7, 2011. Former rebels say they’ve taken some ammunition for the fight against supporters of Moammar Gadhafi, but U.S. officials and others express fears the weapons could fall into the wrong hands.

He says an investigation has been launched. He did not elaborate.

German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung on Thursday cited “western diplomatic sources” as saying that Turkey had stopped a weapons delivery from Iran on its way to Syria which was believed to be destined for Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia.

In March, Turkish authorities seized the cargo of an Iranian plane bound for Syria because the shipment violated U.N. sanctions. Turkish media said the aircraft was carrying light weapons, including automatic rifles, rocket launchers and mortars.

Sacramento Bee

“The Loyalty to Resistance bloc ( Hezbollah) has eagerly rushed to condemn a broad Lebanese political movement without a trial, documents or evidences, in a manner which does not deviate from its well-known, constant approach of launching accusations and disregarding the judiciary.”

The Future bloc denied any interference in the current Syrian unrest, adding that “it wishes only security and stability for the Syrian brothers.”

The statement added that ” Hezbollah MPs have not changed their mode of conduct in pointing fingers and neglecting the judicial process” a reference to the party’s accusations against the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and its probe of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s 2005 assassination.

“If there was a Lebanese party involved in Syria’s unrest, the Syrian Justice Ministry would have submitted a complaint about it in accordance with the 1951 agreement between Lebanon and Syria “, the statement added

Future Movement statement comes after Hezbollah MPs issued on Thursday a statement accusing the Future Movement of being involved in the anti-regime protests in Syria.

The Syrian authorities are reportedly unhappy with Hezbollah for not taking actions in Lebanon in support of the embattled regime which is facing daily protests throughout the country . The Hezbollah MPs according to a Lebanese analyst may have issued the statement against Future Movement to appease their Syrian backers . He added; “Hezbollah doesn’t know any better. “

Commenting about the difficulties PM Designate Nagib Mikati is facing in forming the cabinet he said :

The Hezbollah led March 8 alliance thought it will be very easy for them to form the cabinet , but they miscalculated . and did not recognize the dangers they will be facing both domestically and regionally

He added: “we all know that no one can ignore half of the country through its arms against the state , its institutions and its people . We reject their coup. They are trying to ignore 34 out of the 60 Christian MPs and they are trying to ignore 80 to 85 % of the Sunnis . The logic of using arms for political gain is rejected both domestically and regionally ”

He added whoever drove Hezbollah to mount the coup has fallen into its own trap. This was in reference to Syria and Iran.

In a country of four million , more than one million Lebanese of all faiths… Christians. Druze , Muslim Shiites and Sunnis demanded that Hezbollah be disarmed as they rallied on March 13, to mark the sixth anniversary the Cedar Revolution, the uprising which inspired the recent revolts in the Middle East, International news agencies reported

The Iranian and Syrian -backed Hezbollah brought down Hariri’s government on January 12 over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s (STL) imminent indictment which is widely expected to implicate Hezbollah members in the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri in 2005

Mikati was appointed in January as the PM designate with the backing of the Hezbollah March 8 alliance and MPs Walid Jumblatt and Mohammad Safadi following the collapse of Hariri’s unity government. March 14 leaders have repeatedly said that intimidation from Hezbollah’s weapons helped secure the parliamentary majority for Mikati’s nomination.

Jumblatt and his PSP parliament members reportedly switched allegiance to Hezbollah’s PM candidate, following threats by Hezbollah.

Jumblatt, Mikati and Safadi were all elected on March 14 electoral tickets during the 2009 parliamentary elections.

Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is closely assocated with Hezbollah reported on Thursday that Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati and Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah met on Tuesday in an undisclosed location to discuss the obstacles facing the formation of the new cabinet.

The paper said that this was the second meeting between the two officials since Mikati’s nomination on January 25, as PM designate

But New TV reported on Thursday that Hezbollah’s media relations office neither would confirm nor deny that a meeting took place between the two

Mikati’s sources also denied that a meeting took place recently between the two saying the two men held talks on February 24.

According to al-Akhbar Nasrallah reiterated to Mikati that he should abide by the demands of Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun and the representation of the Sunni opposition by former PM Omar Karami’s son, Faisal.

Also according to al-Akhbar, Mikati rejected to grant Aoun a disproportionate share in the cabinet and was not willing to include Karami in his government.

Mikati was appointed last January as the PM designate with the backing of the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance and MPs Walid Jumblatt and Mohammad Safadi . March 14 leaders have repeatedly said that intimidation from Hezbollah’s weapons helped secure the parliamentary majority for Mikati’s nomination.

According to observers , up until now Hezbollah has been hiding behind FPM leader Michel Aoun in creating obstacles for Mikati , but now it its openly criticizing Mikati, signaling that he may be on his way out.

Hezbollah according to well informed observers never wanted Mikati …it wanted someone it can completely control like former PM Omar Karami , the decision to name Mikati was reportedly made in Syria in consultations with Qatar . Hezbollah along with all the others in its camp were instructed by Syria to back Mikati.

“Before you, Beirut was a capital of ghosts – with you, Beirut returned as a capital of dreams,” Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri said, during the ceremony marking the unveiling of a statue of his dad in downtown Beirut on Thursday.

“When you stood here downtown after the Taif Accord, you had no weapons nor were you surrounded by armed men. You decided to confront the the devastated city with a dream and to drive out the nightmare,” he said.

Addressing his father, he said: “They have turned the weapons against Beirut in your absence.”
, in a possible reference to Hezbollah.

The Iranian and Syrian -backed Hezbollah brought down PM Saad Hariri’s government on January 12 over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s (STL) imminent indictment which is widely expected to implicate Hezbollah members in the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri in 2005

Mikati was appointed in January as the PM designate with the backing of the Hezbollah March 8 alliance and MPs Walid Jumblatt and Mohammad Safadi . March 14 leaders have repeatedly said that intimidation from Hezbollah’s weapons helped secure the parliamentary majority for Mikati’s nomination.

Jumblatt and his PSP parliament members reportedly switched allegiance to Hezbollah’s PM candidate, following threats by Hezbollah.

Jumblatt, Mikati and Safadi were all elected on March 14 electoral tickets during the 2009 parliamentary elections.

Hezbollah is now claiming the parliament majority .

Muslim Sunnis ( 5 portfolios ): Mikati, Mohammad Safadi, Walid Daouk, Aladdin Terru another Sunni , but not Faisal Karami, on whom “Hezbollah” is insisting .

Armenians (1) and other minorities (1)

This lineup will not reportedly see the light because the new Hezbollah led majority is questioning Mikati’s motive behind a cabinet of this size and the makeup of the cabinet . This could mean that Mikati could be forced out and replaced by Mohammad Safadi as the PM designate.

There were rumors that caretaker PM Saad Hariri’s trip to Qatar was intended to return him as the prime minister candidate to form the new cabinet , but Hariri reportedly said that his trip had nothing to do with the Lebanese government

Reports also circulated that Hezbollah is unhappy with the names of the Sunni candidates that Mikati presented. Hezbollah reportedly wants to name 2 Sunni cabinet ministers that are very loyal to the “resistance “…. Faisal Karami is one of them

On March 8 Mikati said that he won’t announce a cabinet that doesn’t include at least 10 or 15 ministers that he would be proud of.

“I can wait. I don’t want a one-sided cabinet and I won’t announce a government (lineup) that doesn’t include at least 10 or 15 ministers that I would be proud of,” he told An Nahar.

Based on the above configuration it is obviously one sided cabinet . The question on his mind must be: ” Does it include the 10 or 15 that he can be proud of ?

The Iranian and Syrian -backed Hezbollah brought down PM Saad Hariri’s government on January 12 over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s (STL) imminent indictment which is widely expected to implicate Hezbollah members in the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri in 2005

Mikati was appointed in January as the PM designate with the backing of the Hezbollah March 8 alliance and MPs Walid Jumblatt and Mohammad Safadi . March 14 leaders have repeatedly said that intimidation from Hezbollah’s weapons helped secure the parliamentary majority for Mikati’s nomination.

Jumblatt and his PSP parliament members reportedly switched allegiance to Hezbollah’s PM candidate, following threats by Hezbollah.

Jumblatt, Mikati and Safadi were all elected on March 14 electoral tickets during the 2009 parliamentary elections.

Hezbollah is now claiming the parliament majority . According to observers , up until now Hezbollah has been hiding behind FPM leader Michel Aoun in creating obstacles for Mikati , but now it its openly criticizing Mikati, signaling that he may be on his way out.

Hezbollah according to well informed observers never wanted Mikati …it wanted someone it can completely control like former PM Omar Karami , the decision to name Mikati was reportedly made in Syria in consultations with Qatar . Hezbollah along with all the others in its camp were instructed by Syria to back Mikati.

Muslim Sunnis (6 portfolios ): Najib Mikati (PM ), Mohammad Safadi (financel), Leila Solh (Education), Abdul Rahman al-Bizri or Faisal Karami (environment), Adnan Kassar or Alaa Terru (state).

Christian Maronites (6): Ziad Baroud (interior ), Gibran Bassil (energy), Fadi Abboud (Tourism), Chakib Kortbawi (justice), Wissam Baroudi (Youth and Sport), Salim Karam (state).

Muslim Shiites (6): Mahmoud Berri (Foreign ), Mohammed Jawad Khalifa (health), Yassin Jaber (information) , Mohammed Fneish (management development), Hussein Hajj Hassan (Agriculture), Trad Hamadeh (state).

Christian Orthodox (4): Fayez Ghosn ( Deputy PM ), Samir Muqbil (defense), Nicolas Nahhas (Economy), Asaad Hardan or Yacoub Sarraf (Labor).

Druze (3): Ghazi Aridi (works) Talal Arslan, or Marwan Khair ad Din (Displaced), Wael Abu Faour (state).

Christian Catholics (3): Charbel Nahhas (Communications), Nicolas Fattoush (Culture), David Issa (state).

Armenians (1): Alan Tabourian (industry).

Minorities (1): Habib Afram (state).

President Suleiman is still insisting on keeping the ministries of Interior and defense

Notes about the candidates:

Abdul Rahman al-Bizri ;  Sidon city  Mayor
Faisal Karami: Son of former PM Omar Karami
Leila Solh Hamadeh : Daughter of the former Prime Minister Riyadh Solh
Chakib Kortbawi: Former head of the Lebanese Bar Association
Wissam Baroudi: Son-in-law of Lebanon’s President Michel Suleiman

On March 8 Mikati said  that he won’t announce a cabinet that doesn’t include at least 10 or 15 ministers that he would be proud of.
“I can wait. I don’t want a one-sided cabinet and I won’t announce a government (lineup) that doesn’t include at least 10 or 15 ministers that I would be proud of,” he told An Nahar.
Based on the above configuration it is obviously  one sided cabinet . The question on his mind must be: ” Does it include the 10 or 15 that he can be proud of ?

The Iranian and Syrian -backed Hezbollah brought down PM Saad Hariri’s government on January 12 over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s (STL) imminent indictment which is widely expected to implicate Hezbollah members in the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri in 2005

Mikati was appointed in January as the PM designate with the backing of the Hezbollah March 8 alliance and MPs Walid Jumblatt and Mohammad Safadi following the collapse of Hariri’s unity government. March 14 leaders have repeatedly said that intimidation from Hezbollah’s weapons helped secure the parliamentary majority for Mikati’s nomination.

Jumblatt and his PSP parliament members reportedly switched allegiance to Hezbollah’s PM candidate, following threats by Hezbollah.

Jumblatt, Mikati and Safadi were all elected on March 14 electoral tickets during the 2009 parliamentary elections.

Hezbollah is now claiming the parliament majority and reportedly wants the government to be formed as quickly as possible due to the turmoil in the Middle East and in order to to be in full control of the country when the STL indictment is made public.

“The president is the one who crippled constitutional institutions and he is the one crippling governance at the moment.” he said

Aoun also attacked March 14 parties for allegedly making negative remarks against Hezbollah during the 2006 July War and said that March 14 “must be tried”

“They must be tried, or else we, who stood behind the Resistance would be condemned.” Aoun said in reference to the WikiLeaks cables .

He also accused al Mustaqbal movement, a key member of March 14 alliance of betraying Hezbollah following the 2005 elections ( after jointly securing the parliament majority) .

In response to a question about being the main obstacle facing the government formation he said :

“For someone to be considered an obstacle in forming the government, he has to be making impossible demands … which we are not doing.”

He also said ” I hear a lot of hearsay about forming a cabinet of technocrats and added “we also have qualified technocrats”, stressing that the cabinet should only be formed by the new March 8 majority and the parties within the alliance should not set up booby traps for themselves because these can explode.

He said he still supports PM designate Nagib Mikati in his efforts to form the cabinet

The Iranian and Syrian -backed Hezbollah brought down Hariri’s government on January 12 over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s (STL) imminent indictment which is widely expected to implicate Hezbollah members in the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri in 2005

Mikati was appointed in January as the PM designate with the backing of the Hezbollah March 8 alliance and MPs Walid Jumblatt and Mohammad Safadi following the collapse of Hariri’s unity government. March 14 leaders have repeatedly said that intimidation from Hezbollah’s weapons helped secure the parliamentary majority for Mikati’s nomination.

Jumblatt and his PSP parliament members reportedly switched allegiance to Hezbollah’s PM candidate, following threats by Hezbollah.

Jumblatt, Mikati and Safadi were all elected on March 14 electoral tickets during the 2009 parliamentary elections.

Hezbollah is now claiming the parliament majority.