Photo Voltaic:One Way to Meet the Electricity Shortage in Lebanon..

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by Ghassan Karamelectricity distribution grid

Let me stress from the start that one of the main outcomes of an electric PV initiative is a substantial decrease in the carbon footprint of the consumers. I will not expand on this issue in the current post because of the space limitations but let me stress that each KWH produced from fossil fuels produces about 1 kilogram of carbon dioxide. Therefore if Lebanon can install a PV base capable of producing say 1 Billion KWH then our contribution towards cutting down on carbon emissions would total about 1 Million Tons each year.  My rough estimate is that total Lebanese carbon emissions are slightly over 20 million tons each year and thus a plan similar to the following guidelines could reduce the Lebanese carbon emissions by about 5%.

Let us start this small exercise by looking at the electricity supplied in Lebanon by source. Just over 9000 GWH is supplied by EDL, another 4500 GWH is self generated and it is usually estimated that suppressed demand is under a 1000 GWH. To add all of this up implies that Lebanon is in need of about 14500 GWH which translates into a minimum of 1600 MW. The peak load is often estimated at 2000 MW plus the 33% self generation which adds up to about 2600 MW.

EDL, as everyone knows, operates at a large deficit that at times approaches $2 Billion a year. The three basic reasons for this huge deficit are:  (1) Technical losses of capacity that is equal to 15% (2) 20% loss due to non technical reasons i.e. not billed and (3) an artificially low electric rate of only 4.6 cents per KWH for the households that consume 500 KWH per month.

The most obvious measures that must be taken by EDL are: (1) Phase in an increase that would bring the average rate for the first 500 KWH to about 8-10 cents. (2) The technical losses are very high by international standards. The 15% loss could easily be brought down to 10%. If that can be accomplished then that would provide over a $100 million  in revenue and (3) no electricity users should be allowed to escape paying the going rate of the electricity that they have consumed.

Short of the above measures that could eliminate most and probably all the deficit EDL and the Lebanese government have the moral duty and obligation to increase the proportion of electricity provided by the state instead of the dirt self generation. One simple solution is an implementation of a Photo Voltaic initiative whose total expense over say 2-3 years would be under $2 billion and that can easily increase the amount of electricity supplied by over 1.1 billion KWH and a potential annual income of $100 million.

So how to do the above? Simply fund a quasi public agency with installing for free the equivalent of 200,000 PV installations whose average output per year 6000 KWH. It is estimated that each of these units can be installed within one day by a work force of 6-8 workers. It is further estimated that this task can be accomplished within 2 years by about 300 such work groups each of whom can install 300 units a year at a total cost of about $10,000 per system.

As is evident from the above the current $2 billion that is wasted on EDL subsidies could be diverted over time, say 2 years, to build a 200,000 unit PV infrastructure with a capacity of 1.2 Billion KWh that is emission free and that will generate an estimated income of over a $100 million per annum, which is an acceptable ROI.

If the government can find the will to implement all the above:

(A)Increase the electricity rate to at least 8cents per KWH for the first 500 KWH per household

(B)Cut down on technical losses from the current 15% to about 19%

(C)Insist on making all users pay for the electricity consumed

(D)Promote the PV initiative as outlined

Then within two years EDL would be on solid financial footing, self generated electricity would be cut in half and EDL would have the financial strength to invest in a modern smart grid.

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19 responses to “Photo Voltaic:One Way to Meet the Electricity Shortage in Lebanon..”

  1. 5thDrawer Avatar
    5thDrawer

    Well Ghassan … I see you worked on that one. The Sun-god will be pleased, and I for one have been pumping for some belief in RA for a while. The odds on it happening are too remote, I think, at least while the Assad war goes on and on. And some people too used to being eternally subsidized are not going to be happy to be actually charged for a service. But you know that.
    You hadn’t counted all the ‘gas-cooking’ that goes on, because an electric stove is useless, in your Carbon figures either – which would make this even more attractive – especially to the ‘house-maids’ who run for gas-bottles in morning parades. (Safety of the bottles always being dubious as well.)
    Perhaps it would be better to tell everyone with a south-facing balcony to hang a flex-solar-panel instead of an awning, charge everyone of those a ‘flat-rate’, and tie them into the ‘grid’ … with a promise to ‘pay-back’ to them what they don’t use personally. North-American electrical companies are tricking people with that one … and the Germans seem to actually be paying back. 😉
    I think ‘pay-for-what-you-use’ is going to be the biggest factor dismissing your thoughts immediately … but I DO admire that you try. Good article.

    1. ghassan Karam Avatar
      ghassan Karam

      The actual calculations become very interesting. I am not going to bore you with them but since it takes over a 1/4 KWH to drive the small Leaf one mile and since each KWH represents , in the US, about 1.2 pounds it becomes clear that the source of electricity is what determines whether EV vehicles are clean or not.

      1. 5thDrawer Avatar
        5thDrawer

        True enough Ghassan. And if we could trap all the methane that cows burp out because there is such a population-demand for them, we could forgo drilling in the Med too. 😉
        I was happy to see the news report on the ‘water-treatment plant’ the French ‘tec’ and some private money (buying land) are starting in Lebanon.
        And here is a ‘first’ problem with no-one wishing to ‘let go’ of any land for the benefit of the country as a whole (we remember the hydro-pole incident …). In ‘normal’ countries, when there is a viable need – discussed at length with the affected citizens as well – a land-owner (even if sad about it) is generally offered fair value for what must be given up to aid the whole, and a functional government is given the right to do it legally under the conditions of that process.
        If the ‘hydro-company’ cannot even mount a pole without guns coming out, Lebanon has a ways to go before it can mount a ‘solar-farm’ – even on top of the barren mountains. At the very least, a road to it is needed. 😉
        (And these days, even a road comes under the inspection of ecologists … ouch)

  2. 5thDrawer Avatar
    5thDrawer

    Well Ghassan … I see you worked on that one. The Sun-god will be pleased, and I for one have been pumping for some belief in RA for a while. The odds on it happening are too remote, I think, at least while the Assad war goes on and on. And some people too used to being eternally subsidized are not going to be happy to be actually charged for a service. But you know that.
    You hadn’t counted all the ‘gas-cooking’ that goes on, because an electric stove is useless, in your Carbon figures either – which would make this even more attractive – especially to the ‘house-maids’ who run for gas-bottles in morning parades. (Safety of the bottles always being dubious as well.)
    Perhaps it would be better to tell everyone with a south-facing balcony to hang a flex-solar-panel instead of an awning, charge everyone of those a ‘flat-rate’, and tie them into the ‘grid’ … with a promise to ‘pay-back’ to them what they don’t use personally. North-American electrical companies are tricking people with that one … and the Germans seem to actually be paying back. 😉
    I think ‘pay-for-what-you-use’ is going to be the biggest factor dismissing your thoughts immediately … but I DO admire that you try. Good article.

    1. ghassan Karam Avatar
      ghassan Karam

      The actual calculations become very interesting. I am not going to bore you with them but since it takes over a 1/4 KWH to drive the small Leaf one mile and since each KWH represents , in the US, about 1.2 pounds it becomes clear that the source of electricity is what determines whether EV vehicles are clean or not.

      1. 5thDrawer Avatar
        5thDrawer

        True enough Ghassan. And if we could trap all the methane that cows burp out because there is such a population-demand for them, we could forgo drilling in the Med too. 😉

  3. Constantin7 Avatar
    Constantin7

    Ghassan, you touched upon a very important subject that is needed by ALL in Lebanon no matter their political / religious affiliation. Actually there is not only the Photo Voltaic source of electricity, there is also the water and wind generated electricity. As long as we have rivers running, there is a potential to generate electricity through water mills especially on the Assi and Litani river which are fluent all year long. The Sun, wind and water produced energy is much more cleaner energy than the one presently generated in the Zouk plant where people are breathing day and night the carbon emmissions of the power plant and having all sorts of diseases because of it. I even heard that in Danemark and Portugal they producing electricity from the sea waves. We just need the WILL and the gathering of human resources of engineers and some mentoring from European nations (in order not to re-invent the wheel) and we would be fine electricity wise. I envisage having the extreme North, the Bekaa and the extreme South lit 24/24 through clean energy first (areas closest to nature – sun, wind and water), if this happens many people in the cities would return back to their villages to work and produce. It is good to dream from time to time, hopefully our dreams will be realized….one day !

    1. 5thDrawer Avatar
      5thDrawer

      Review ‘Popular Science (dot) Com’ sometime …..

    2. ghassan Karam Avatar
      ghassan Karam

      Constantin7,
      It was my mistake not elaborating enough that my purpose in the above entry was not a comprehensive solution but only a few small steps that are inexpensive but yet could break this terrible dependence on dirty and inefficient self generated electricity in addition to putting EDL on solid financial footing.
      I have in the past written about comprehensive solutions for Lebanon. I am of the belief that Lebanon could transform its electricity superstructure in less than 6 years to generate if not all then close to all its needs from nonfossil fuels. That would take 2-3 medium size off shore wind farms, a medium size solar thermal power plant in the Bekaa, new strict building codes that demand VC on every new structure, an initiative to retrofit older structures with PV capability, better use of the hydro potential , a smart grid and obviously the political will to charge all users a fair rate that relies on demand management.

      1. 5thDrawer Avatar
        5thDrawer

        No mistake, Ghassan. You can’t put the ‘book’ on electricity production in here.
        That’s the purpose of planning committees. Your thoughts are quite valid.

    3. 5thDrawer Avatar
      5thDrawer

      Can you people get away from that 24/24 ??? ;-)))))

  4. Constantin7 Avatar
    Constantin7

    Ghassan, you touched upon a very important subject that is needed by ALL in Lebanon no matter their political / religious affiliation. Actually there is not only the Photo Voltaic source of electricity, there is also the water and wind generated electricity. As long as we have rivers running, there is a potential to generate electricity through water mills especially on the Assi and Litani river which are fluent all year long. The Sun, wind and water produced energy is much more cleaner energy than the one presently generated in the Zouk plant where people are breathing day and night the carbon emmissions of the power plant and having all sorts of diseases because of it. I even heard that in Danemark and Portugal they producing electricity from the sea waves. We just need the WILL and the gathering of human resources of engineers and some mentoring from European nations (in order not to re-invent the wheel) and we would be fine electricity wise. I envisage having the extreme North, the Bekaa and the extreme South lit 24/24 through clean energy first (areas closest to nature – sun, wind and water), if this happens many people in the cities would return back to their villages to work and produce. It is good to dream from time to time, hopefully our dreams will be realized….one day !

    1. 5thDrawer Avatar
      5thDrawer

      Review ‘Popular Science (dot) Com’ sometime …..

    2. ghassan Karam Avatar
      ghassan Karam

      Constantin7,
      It was my mistake not elaborating enough that my purpose in the above entry was not a comprehensive solution but only a few small steps that are inexpensive but yet could break this terrible dependence on dirty and inefficient self generated electricity in addition to putting EDL on solid financial footing.
      I have in the past written about comprehensive solutions for Lebanon. I am of the belief that Lebanon could transform its electricity superstructure in less than 6 years to generate if not all then close to all its needs from nonfossil fuels. That would take 2-3 medium size off shore wind farms, a medium size solar thermal power plant in the Bekaa, new strict building codes that demand VC on every new structure, an initiative to retrofit older structures with PV capability, better use of the hydro potential , a smart grid and obviously the political will to charge all users a fair rate that relies on demand management.

      1. 5thDrawer Avatar
        5thDrawer

        No mistake, Ghassan. You can’t put the ‘book’ on electricity production in here.
        That’s the purpose of planning committees. Your thoughts are quite valid.

    3. 5thDrawer Avatar
      5thDrawer

      Can you people get away from that 24/24 ??? ;-)))))

  5. Constantin7 Avatar
    Constantin7

    Ghassan, you touched upon a very important subject that is needed by ALL in Lebanon no matter their political / religious affiliation. Actually there is not only the Photo Voltaic source of electricity, there is also the water and wind generated electricity. As long as we have rivers running, there is a potential to generate electricity through water mills especially on the Assi and Litani river which are fluent all year long. The Sun, wind and water produced energy is much more cleaner energy than the one presently generated in the Zouk plant where people are breathing day and night the carbon emmissions of the power plant and having all sorts of diseases because of it. I even heard that in Danemark and Portugal they producing electricity from the sea waves. We just need the WILL and the gathering of human resources of engineers and some mentoring from European nations (in order not to re-invent the wheel) and we would be fine electricity wise. I envisage having the extreme North, the Bekaa and the extreme South lit 24/24 through clean energy first (areas closest to nature – sun, wind and water), if this happens many people in the cities would return back to their villages to work and produce. It is good to dream from time to time, hopefully our dreams will be realized….one day !

  6. 5thDrawer Avatar
    5thDrawer

    (sorry Ghassan 😉 ONLY mildly connected to ‘electricity’ – The COMIC RELIEF’ for the day. ;-))
    (We need some … You’re welcome, folks. :-))))
    REPORT from BBC ….
    ‘A luxury toilet controlled by a smartphone app is vulnerable to attack, according to security experts.
    Retailing for up to $5,686 (£3,821), the Satis toilet includes automatic flushing, bidet spray, music and fragrance release.
    The toilet, manufactured by Japanese firm Lixil, is controlled via an Android app called My Satis.
    “It’s easy to see how a practical joker might be able to trick his neighbours into thinking his toilet is possessed as it squirts water and blows warm air unexpectedly on their intended victim, but it’s hard to imagine how serious hardened cybercriminals would be interested in this security hole,” he told the BBC.
    “Although this vulnerability seems largely harmless, what’s clear is that companies building household appliances need to have security in mind just as much as computer manufacturers.”
    But a hardware flaw means any phone with the app could activate any of the toilets, researchers say.’

    (Yah .. right … and when my crap becomes worth $6000 I’m gonna get me one of these … :-))))
    But for sure, I ALWAYS worried about having a ‘secure crapper’. Hope they work it out …..
    Perfume?? What IS a company named ‘LIX IL’ really thinking about?? Hahahahahahahahahahaa

  7. 5thDrawer Avatar
    5thDrawer

    (sorry Ghassan 😉 ONLY mildly connected to ‘electricity’ – The COMIC RELIEF’ for the day. ;-))
    (We need some … You’re welcome, folks. :-))))
    Report from BBC ….
    ‘A luxury toilet controlled by a smartphone app is vulnerable to attack, according to security experts.
    Retailing for up to $5,686 (£3,821), the Satis toilet includes automatic flushing, bidet spray, music and fragrance release.
    The toilet, manufactured by Japanese firm Lixil, is controlled via an Android app called My Satis.
    “It’s easy to see how a practical joker might be able to trick his neighbours into thinking his toilet is possessed as it squirts water and blows warm air unexpectedly on their intended victim, but it’s hard to imagine how serious hardened cybercriminals would be interested in this security hole,” he told the BBC.
    “Although this vulnerability seems largely harmless, what’s clear is that companies building household appliances need to have security in mind just as much as computer manufacturers.”
    But a hardware flaw means any phone with the app could activate any of the toilets, researchers say.’

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